“Surely, he is better than these” : Friday’s Chester Day 3 Selections
Three selections at Chester on Friday with one possibly to come (update will follow).
13:30 Chester – Back Two Tempting @ 9/2 1pt
Two Tempting is building back to form and caught the eye at Newbury last time over a trip that can stretch him. In my opinion, he is much better suited to seven furlongs. He was very good here in August, from one pound lower under Rob Hornby, when cosily taking care of today’s favourite Divine Libra.
Two Tempting has the plum draw in stall one, and Divine Libra is out in 11, so I see no reason why the form should be reversed, particularly as the selection should be able to get a good early position and kick for home.
He is back on a faster surface for the first time since Chester last year, and the negatives are really tough to find. There are no hidden horses in this field, and he is remarkably consistent with everything in his favour.
Providing he gets the luck in the running, I see no reason why he can’t return to winning ways. The handicapper continues to give him every chance, and he is simply better than these on his best day.
He must be backed at 3/1 or bigger. Any time the selection has SP’d at shorter than 3/1, his form figures read 22212. Market confidence here would be a big boost.
However, it’s still difficult to find a reason he won’t score.
Take no less than 3/1.
*Top price 9/2 in eight places, general 4/1 chance.
13:50 Ascot – Back Brave Mission @ 7/2 1pt
Ralph Beckett’s Brave Mission looks to have been handed a fair opening handicap mark of 91, and, interestingly, connections start him off here at Ascot, perhaps with the Britannia Handicap at the Royal meeting in mind. Still, his trainer described him as having “plenty of mileage” in him in his stable tour, and this stiffer test of stamina will suit him well.
He is given the chance to make a seasonal winning debut under Rossa Ryan. He had excuses at Doncaster last season when staying on powerfully in a tactically run race won by Chancellor, who will turn out to be a six-furlong horse in due course. He pulled well clear of the other two rivals that day, chasing in vain, and he was an eye catcher on his debut at Newbury behind The Waco Kid, rated 107.
His final effort last season was a devastating win at Kempton. He showed a blistering turn of foot, with two very rapid closing sectionals, one hitting as low as 11.13. He is almost certainly a Royal Ascot horse in the making, a son of Frankel and bred to be useful. The Kempton form has substance. The runner-up is rated 85, and the fifth is rated 92.
This has a fairly deep look on paper, with Shout the clear second preference having been in our eye-catcher columns. However, the selection has plenty more upside to his profile, and I expect him to get the job done and be talked about for Royal Ascot following this outing.
Take no less than 3/1.
*Top price 4/1, general 7/2
14:05 Chester – No Bet
I had no strong opinion in this race, and it’s tough to know how any of these will handle the course. The Pouncing Lion has the most potential for the future. One suspects heavy ground, a wide draw, and a poor ride from Hector Crouch weren’t the combination that would see him to the best effect at Goodwood last year. A sizeable two-year-old, he is likely to progress, and the booking of Ryan Moore is interesting.
Wise Counsellor has a good attitude, so the cheek-pieces the first time are slightly strange. Still, he should do well.
14:35 Chester – Back The Foxes @ 11/8 2pt
This can go to the smart The Foxes for Andrew Balding, who has been a sensation on his travels. While he does have a ceiling to his ability, none of these can surely surpass it. The five-year-old was an excellent fourth in the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup two starts back, and he found only Rebel’s Romance a length too good in February (rated 123).
That form is easily the best on offer in this contest, and considering he was worth an upgrade last time and arrives on the back of a career-best effort, he looks excellent value at any odds against in this company.
In the hope that Oisin Murphy doesn’t overcomplicate matters from stall one, he should be in an excellent position to take care of these inferior rivals.
This track will prove too sharp for Space Legend, and Bolster will need a huge career best to land this and is possibly crying out for a move back to 1m.
Liberty Lane’s best work has come at Newmarket, but he is feared the most if on a going day.
Take no less than EVENS about the selection.
*General 11/8
15:05 Chester – No Bet
Another race I thought was tricky. Leinster was interesting, and the money has come in drips and drabs. However, fast ground is an unknown.
I am waiting to see what price I can get on the progressive Caballo De Mar. I was very impressed with how he dispatched Manxman at Southwell last time, and he is well in at the weights, turned out 12 days on.
He is entirely unexposed and has abundant stamina, so there should be no issue moving back to turf. He shaped well on fast ground at Yarmouth last year and again at Ayr.
He is the one who makes the most appeal, and 8/1 or bigger, I would be seriously interested.
15:40 Chester – No Bet
This could easily go the way of Take Heart if he is in the same form as when landing a competitive Goodwood race last year. He is the only one who makes an appeal in all honesty, despite some course winners in here. However, stall nine is off-putting, and he is hardly thrown in. Perhaps something is lurking that I have missed?