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The Market Form Edge.
Dan Skelton
A drift hasn’t meant fewer winners.
Almost identical strike rates.
Let others worry about meaningless market drifters. See the record behind the drift before reacting.
Open → 10am · drifts of 5+ probability points.
Aidan O’Brien
When the early money deserves a closer look.
runners backed this strongly by 10am
JUST 3.7% OF THE SAMPLEFurther support to 11/8 or shorter
in that qualifying group
Support threshold: 10+ probability points. Each percentage relates to its stated group.
Henry de Bromhead
Support changes the historical picture.
More than double his overall strike rate.
Main comparison: opening → SP. Morning group: Open → 10am.
All that context.
Inside our ratings.
Historical examples. Support and drift are measured in probability points. Samples and checkpoints differ; these strike rates are historical group results.
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What Matters Right Now
Rare moves. Strong strike rates. The winners and runners behind them.
See the rare moves, historical strike rates and winners-to-runners records that stand out today.
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The strongest horse and trainer evidence from the races coming up next.
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What Moved Overnight Into 10am
Market Movers
Find the moves that matter because of what happened historically—not simply because a price shortened or weakened.
Most Meaningful Overnight Movement
Ranked by what comparable market behaviour has historically meant—not by the size of today’s price change.
Level Up
1.16 Nottingham7/1 → 18/1 · David Evans
1 of this horse’s 19 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s.
With drift comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 2/3 times and won 0/3. The best finishing position from those runs was 2nd at Beverley on 20th July 2026 at 9/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 25/1 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 2/22 runners won (9.1%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
King Cherry
4.15 Kempton (AW)9/2 → 6/1 · Stuart Williams
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 12 previous runs.
Across 6 previous runs in which this horse drifted, it placed 0 times and won 0.
What to watch +
Watch for 17/2 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 3/13 runners won (23.1%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
Zafaan
2.36 Huntingdon11/4 → 9/2 · Charlie Clover
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 8 previous runs. The trainer is 4/21 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
This horse has recorded 1 previous drift comparable to today’s move and failed to place.
What to watch +
Watch for 6/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 0/3 runners won (0%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
Chief Minister
12.46 Nottingham5/1 → 10/3 · Eve Johnson Houghton · NR-adjusted move
1 of this horse’s 3 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 19/73 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
This horse has recorded 1 previous support move comparable to today’s and failed to place. The best finishing position from those runs was 9th at Bath on 19th October 2026 at 3/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 3/1 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 13/28 runners won (46.4%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
Scotto
1.36 Huntingdon15/8 → 11/8 · James Owen
The trainer is 68/221 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Market Rasen on 19th June 2026, when it finished 1st at an SP of 9/4.
What to watch +
Watch for 5/4 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 36/89 runners won (40.4%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
Vol Royale
1.51 Newton Abbot9/2 → 3/1 · Kayley Woollacott
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 3 previous runs. The trainer is 5/18 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 1/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Hereford on 18th March 2026 at 7/4.
Room Service
2.16 Nottingham6/1 → 10/1 · Jamie Osborne
1 of this horse’s 3 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s.
This horse has recorded 1 previous drift comparable to today’s move and failed to place. The best finishing position from those runs was 10th at Sandown on 16th September 2026 at 12/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 16/1 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 1/12 runners won (8.3%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
Rey de La Batalla
8.15 Kempton (AW)20/1 → 19/2 · Simon Dow
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 5 previous runs. The trainer is 5/17 with runners shortening 3 percentage points or more during Open→10AM.
Across 2 previous supported runs, the horse placed 0 times and won 0.
What to watch +
Watch for 9/1 or shorter: the 5-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 4/9 runners won (44.4%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning.
Backed 10AM
Strongest bookmaker support at the checkpoint.
| # | Horse | Race | Trainer | Opening price | 10AM price | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Par AvionJ: Bryan Carver | 4.21 Newton AbbotClass 4 · 2m0f167y | Harry Fry | 5/21st show | 7/425 books | +10.00ppNR-adjusted · +26.1% price |
The trainer is 7/18 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This level of support is regularly seen for this trainer — 11 of 68 historical runners (16.2%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 11 runners, 6 won (54.5%). One previous run showed market support, when the horse placed but did not win. Harry Fry: 7/18 won (38.9%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 24.3% (17/70). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 11/8 or shorter: the 12-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 4/5 runners won (80%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #2 | Vango Can GoJ: Harry Skelton | 1.21 Newton AbbotClass 3 · 2m5f122y | Dan Skelton | 3/101st show | 1/625 books | +9.51pp+11.1% price |
The trainer is 71/169 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.Unusual support for this trainer — only 82 of 888 historical runners (9.2%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 82 runners, 37 won (45.1%). No comparable historical support is recorded for this horse. Dan Skelton: 71/169 won (42%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 23.6% (217/920). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 1/8 or shorter: the 12-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 22/40 runners won (55%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #3 | CentaraJ: Jay Tidball(5) | 3.21 Newton AbbotClass 4 · 2m0f75y | Paul Nicholls | 7/21st show | 9/425 books | +7.71ppNR-adjusted · +26.4% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 4 previous runs. The trainer is 20/61 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 4 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 24 of 311 historical runners (7.7%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 24 runners, 5 won (20.8%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Newton Abbot on 3rd June 2026, when it finished 4th at an SP of 5/1. Paul Nicholls: 20/61 won (32.8%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 18.1% (59/326). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 15/8 or shorter: the 12-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 2/12 runners won (16.7%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #4 | Chief MinisterJ: Clifford Lee | 12.46 NottinghamClass 5 · 0m5f8y | Eve Johnson Houghton | 5/11st show | 10/325 books | +7.69ppNR-adjusted · +31.2% price |
1 of this horse’s 3 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 19/73 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.One of this horse’s 3 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. Unusual support for this trainer — only 55 of 457 historical runners (12%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 55 runners, 16 won (29.1%). This horse has recorded 1 previous support move comparable to today’s and failed to place. The best finishing position from those runs was 9th at Bath on 19th October 2026 at 3/1. Eve Johnson Houghton: 19/73 won (26%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 11.6% (54/464). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 3/1 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 13/28 runners won (46.4%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #5 | ScottoJ: Jonathan Burke | 1.36 HuntingdonClass 4 · 2m3f137y | James Owen | 15/81st show | 11/825 books | +6.86pp+16.3% price |
The trainer is 68/221 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This level of support is regularly seen for this trainer — 152 of 983 historical runners (15.5%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 152 runners, 47 won (30.9%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Market Rasen on 19th June 2026, when it finished 1st at an SP of 9/4. James Owen: 68/221 won (30.8%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 16% (163/1018). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 5/4 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 36/89 runners won (40.4%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #6 | CentigradeJ: Hector Crouch | 2.16 NottinghamClass 1 · 1m0f75y | Ralph Beckett | 13/81st show | 5/425 books | +6.66pp+15.0% price |
2 of this horse’s 4 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 30/123 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.2 of this horse’s 4 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. This level of support is regularly seen for this trainer — 97 of 605 historical runners (16%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 97 runners, 27 won (27.8%). With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/2 times and won 1/2. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Southwell (AW) on 18th June 2026 at 6/4. Ralph Beckett: 30/123 won (24.4%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 17% (104/610). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 11/10 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 20/57 runners won (35.1%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #7 | GavooJ: Reese Holohan(5) | 2.30 Dundalk (AW)1m | David Marnane | 5/11st show | 10/324 books | +6.17ppNR-adjusted · +27.0% price |
1 of this horse’s 8 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 5/36 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.One of this horse’s 8 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. Unusual support for this trainer — only 16 of 206 historical runners (7.8%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 16 runners, 2 won (12.5%). With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/2 times and won 0/2. The best finishing position from those runs was 2nd at Naas on 24th June 2026 at EVS. David Marnane: 5/36 won (13.9%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 8.1% (17/210). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 3/1 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 1/4 runners won (25%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #8 | Vol RoyaleJ: Sean Bowen | 1.51 Newton AbbotClass 3 · 2m5f122y | Kayley Woollacott | 9/21st show | 3/125 books | +6.02pp+24.1% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 3 previous runs. The trainer is 5/18 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 3 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 5 of 55 historical runners (9.1%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 5 runners, 0 won (0%). With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 1/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Hereford on 18th March 2026 at 7/4. Kayley Woollacott: 5/18 won (27.8%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 22% (13/59). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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Drifted 10AM
Largest bookmaker weakness at the checkpoint.
| # | Horse | Race | Trainer | Opening price | 10AM price | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | CoastingJ: Robbie Colgan | 2.30 Dundalk (AW)1m | David Marnane | 7/41st show | 3/124 books | -10.27ppNR-adjusted · -40.2% price |
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 5 previous runs.This is the strongest weakness recorded for this horse across its 5 previous runs. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 7 of 206 historical runners (3.4%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 7 runners, 0 won (0%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Cork (IRE) on 9th September 2026, when it finished 13th at an SP of 20/1. David Marnane: 0/3 won (0%) after drift of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 8.1% (17/210). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this weakness continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further drifting would strengthen the warning; renewed support would weaken it. |
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| #2 | Opening BidJ: Brendan Powell | 3.21 Newton AbbotClass 4 · 2m0f75y | Joe Tizzard | 15/81st show | 11/425 books | -10.14ppNR-adjusted · -41.5% price |
The trainer is 4/52 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 19 of 272 historical runners (7%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 19 runners, 3 won (15.8%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Chepstow on 9th October 2026, when it finished 4th at an SP of 28/1. Joe Tizzard: 4/52 won (7.7%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 13.8% (39/283). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 7/2 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 0/6 runners won (0%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #3 | Crystal OrchardJ: Brendan Powell | 1.21 Newton AbbotClass 3 · 2m5f122y | Joe Tizzard | 7/21st show | 15/225 books | -9.47pp-78.8% price |
The trainer is 4/52 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 19 of 272 historical runners (7%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 19 runners, 3 won (15.8%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Exeter on 9th January 2026, when it finished 5th at an SP of 8/1. Joe Tizzard: 4/52 won (7.7%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 13.8% (39/283). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 10/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 0/6 runners won (0%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #4 | The Gift ShopJ: Harry Skelton | 4.21 Newton AbbotClass 4 · 2m0f167y | Dan Skelton | 7/41st show | 5/225 books | -8.69ppNR-adjusted · -31.3% price |
The price is drifting.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 95 of 888 historical runners (10.7%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 95 runners, 23 won (24.2%). No comparable historical drift is recorded for this horse. Dan Skelton: 62/280 won (22.1%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 23.6% (217/920). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 10/3 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 7/41 runners won (17.1%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #5 | ZafaanJ: Harry Cobden | 2.36 HuntingdonClass 4 · 1m7f171y | Charlie Clover | 11/41st show | 9/225 books | -8.46pp-47.2% price |
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 8 previous runs. The trainer is 4/21 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest weakness recorded for this horse across its 8 previous runs. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 4 of 114 historical runners (3.5%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 4 runners, 1 won (25%). This horse has recorded 1 previous drift comparable to today’s move and failed to place. Charlie Clover: 4/21 won (19%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 24.1% (28/116). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 6/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 0/3 runners won (0%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #6 | Level UpJ: Amy Tucker(7) | 1.16 NottinghamClass 5 · 0m5f8y | David Evans | 7/11st show | 18/125 books | -7.39pp-137.8% price |
1 of this horse’s 19 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s.One of this horse’s 19 previous recorded moves showed greater weakness than today’s. This level of weakness is regularly seen for this trainer — 52 of 312 historical runners (16.7%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 52 runners, 3 won (5.8%). With drift comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 2/3 times and won 0/3. The best finishing position from those runs was 2nd at Beverley on 20th July 2026 at 9/1. David Evans: 6/62 won (9.7%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 9.5% (31/325). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 25/1 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 2/22 runners won (9.1%) in that checkpoint group. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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| #7 | SeedlingJ: David Noonan | 4.06 HuntingdonClass 5 · 1m7f171y | Ben Clarke | 11/41st show | 9/225 books | -7.18pp-38.3% price |
The trainer is 1/5 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 3 of 66 historical runners (4.5%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 3 runners, 1 won (33.3%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Newton Abbot on 4th April 2026, when it finished 1st at an SP of 10/1. Ben Clarke: 1/5 won (20%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 12.1% (8/66). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this weakness continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further drifting would strengthen the warning; renewed support would weaken it. |
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| #8 | CampenaertsJ: Rob Hornby | 1.16 NottinghamClass 5 · 0m5f8y | Jonathan Portman | 13/21st show | 14/125 books | -6.71pp-95.6% price |
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 6 previous runs.This is the strongest weakness recorded for this horse across its 6 previous runs. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 29 of 255 historical runners (11.4%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 29 runners, 4 won (13.8%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Bath on 17th April 2026, when it finished 6th at an SP of 28/1. Jonathan Portman: 4/34 won (11.8%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 10.3% (27/261). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 20/1 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 4/12 runners won (33.3%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. Reaching this price does not itself change the horse’s chance of winning. |
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Frozen and live bookmaker-market evidence, not a tip. Historical outcomes do not guarantee today’s result. Exchange prices are excluded.
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