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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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LIVE · Updated 18:57:26
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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
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Market overview
Runners Today
10
Shown After Filters
3
Active Signals (15%+)
6
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Geometry
50
18:30 Southwell (AW)
+6.03pp
True move after NR adjustment · 11/10 → 5/6
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Kings Medal
44
18:30 Southwell (AW)
-6.34pp
True move after NR adjustment · 11/4 → 4/1
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
18:30Southwell (AW) • Flat • 1m13y • Class 3 • Going: Standard
3 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

18:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksGeometryDraw 10
Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
10AM EMERGING PATTERNFrozen 10am Emerging market pattern. This is an early pattern, not yet a fully established repeat-winner signal.

Source: stored dcn_signal_flags classification for today. This signal is frozen at 10am; the live price can move afterwards without changing the 10am classification.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 14/1 · 88% shorter today
Last run18 days ago · 6 Oct 2026
Distance changeUp 1f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 11.2% • +6.03 probability points
Built 10:57 → 11:11
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newcastle (AW), 05 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 9/4 → final market price 5/4 (+13.19pp).

Opened 11/10Market avg 5/6Implied win: 53.6% · Loss: 46.4%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+6.03pp(+11.2%)
5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 4/5
BEST FIXED ODDS
10/11 1.91 decimal 7Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
7Bet 10/11Bet365 10/11BetWright 10/11Betfred 10/11Coral 10/11Dragon Bet 10/11Hollywood Bets 10/11Ladbrokes 10/11SportingIndex 10/11Spreadex 10/11William Hill 10/11Bet Victor 5/6BetMGM 5/6BetTom 5/6Betano 5/6Boyle Sports 5/6LiveScore Bet 5/6Midnite 5/6Quinn Bet 5/6Star Sports 5/6Unibet 5/6Virgin Bet 5/6Betfair Sportsbook 5/6Paddy Power 5/610 Bet 4/5
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners11/10+10.18ppOpen → 10am8/11-4.16pp10am → now; SP pending5/6Current; SP pendingPending+6.03pp
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+6.03ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer21.5% → 38.5%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 96 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.16pp since 10am, as of 18:27. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: Class 3 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

Roger Varian runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 37/96 (a 38.5% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 21.5% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Geometry has shortened from 11/10 to 5/6, which is support (+6.03pp).

Shortened by 10.18pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.16pp since 10am. As of 18:27; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 10pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 10/15 (66.7%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 06 Oct 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 13y · previous 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 3
ACT NOW — DO NOT WAIT FOR ANOTHER 2PP

41.7% of Roger Varian runners backed by at least 10pp by 10am continued to shorten from 10am to SP (15/36). Today’s live move of +6.03pp is supported by the horse or trainer evidence too. That continuation record is the reason to act now: waiting for another 2pp risks losing the available price.

WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 8/11 (1.74 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 22/55 (40%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 21.5%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 10/11 (1.90 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 37/96 (38.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 21.5%.

Risk of losing the price: 15/36 (41.7%) trainer runners backed by 10pp+ by 10am shortened further into SP.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
18:30Southwell (AW)
Trainer: George Boughey
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 14.8% • +2.67 probability points
Opened 11/2Market avg 9/2Implied win: 18.1% · Loss: 81.9%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.67pp(+14.8%)
9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 5/1Betfred 5/1SportingIndex 5/1Spreadex 5/110 Bet 9/27Bet 9/2Bet Victor 9/2BetMGM 9/2BetTom 9/2BetWright 9/2Betano 9/2Boyle Sports 9/2Coral 9/2Dragon Bet 9/2Hollywood Bets 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2LiveScore Bet 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/2Virgin Bet 9/2William Hill 9/2Paddy Power 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 7/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners11/2+7.71ppOpen → 10am10/3-5.04pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending+2.67pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-5.04pp since 10am, as of 18:27. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Champagne Poetry is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 7.71pp by 10am. Drifted by 5.04pp since 10am. As of 18:27; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 14/25 (56%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 4/1 (4.91 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 31/85 (36.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 18.1%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
18:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksSaxon LawDraw 3
Trainer: David O'Meara
Jockey: Mark Winn
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 11.8% • +0.78 probability points
Opened 16/1Market avg 14/1Implied win: 6.7% · Loss: 93.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.78pp(+11.8%)
14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
16/1 17 decimal LiveScore Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
LiveScore Bet 16/1Virgin Bet 16/110 Bet 14/17Bet 14/1Bet Victor 14/1Bet365 14/1BetTom 14/1BetWright 14/1Betano 14/1Betfred 14/1Boyle Sports 14/1Coral 14/1Dragon Bet 14/1Hollywood Bets 14/1Ladbrokes 14/1Midnite 14/1Quinn Bet 14/1SportingIndex 14/1Spreadex 14/1Star Sports 14/1William Hill 14/1Betfair Sportsbook 14/1Paddy Power 14/1BetMGM 12/1Unibet 12/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners16/1+3.64ppOpen → 10am9/1-2.86pp10am → now; SP pending14/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.78pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.86pp since 10am, as of 18:27. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Saxon Law is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 3.64pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.86pp since 10am. As of 18:27; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 8/1 (9.19 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 26/120 (21.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10.8%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 18:58
  • Supported1 of 10 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Geometry +6.03pp
  • Drifting3 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Golden Eagle -6.72pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Jebayli +6.14pp · biggest drift: Champagne Poetry -9.09pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Jebayli
15-minute snapshot 18:57 · no additional market query
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