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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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See what today’s price moves mean.

LIVE · Updated 18:57:26
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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
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Market overview
Runners Today
14
Shown After Filters
4
Active Signals (15%+)
9
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Love You More
65
19:00 Southwell (AW)
+11.89pp
True move after NR adjustment · 11/1 → 10/3
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Crown The Future
45
19:00 Southwell (AW)
-5.75pp
True move after NR adjustment · 4/1 → 11/2
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
19:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 1m13y • Class 6 • Going: Standard
4 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

19:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Joseph Parr
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 9/2 · 20% shorter today
Last run25 days ago · 29 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 1.4f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP10/31 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +63.5% • +14.49pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +2.60pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/2 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 11/2 → 9/2 (+2.60pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +11.89pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
88th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE88th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 8 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 7th at Windsor on 29 Jun 2026 (+13.89pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
0/3 placed when backed like this (0%).
When backed like this: 0/3 WON
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Windsor, 29 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 11/1 → final market price 7/2 (+13.89pp).

All 3 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Southwell (AW), 16 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 8/1 → final 9/2
  • Windsor, 29 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 11/1 → final 7/2
  • Brighton, 09 Jun 2026 — 10th • open 14/1 → final 11/2
Opened 11/1Market avg 10/3Implied win: 22.8% · Loss: 77.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+11.89pp(+58.8%)
3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 3/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
4/1 5 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 4/1Coral 4/1Ladbrokes 4/17Bet 7/2BetWright 7/2Dragon Bet 7/2Midnite 7/2SportingIndex 7/2Spreadex 7/2Star Sports 7/2Unibet 7/2William Hill 7/2BetMGM 10/3BetTom 10/3Betfred 10/3Hollywood Bets 10/3LiveScore Bet 10/3Quinn Bet 10/3Virgin Bet 10/310 Bet 3/1Bet Victor 3/1Betano 3/1Boyle Sports 3/1Paddy Power 3/1Betfair Sportsbook 11/4
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners11/1+14.07ppOpen → 10am3/1-2.18pp10am → now; SP pending10/3Current; SP pendingPending+11.89ppNR adjusted
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+11.89ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer6.8% → 20%Open → SP · backed 10pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 10 runners, Open → SP · backed 10pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyMissed top 2: 3/3Comparable support: 0 first/second finishes in 3 completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.18pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Joseph Parr runners in the matching 10pp+ band have won 2/10 (a 20% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 6.8% strike rate. Just 1 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse against its previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 3 runs. Today’s move: Love You More has shortened from 11/1 to 10/3, which is strong support (+11.89pp).

Shortened by 14.07pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.18pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Lingfield (AW) · 13 Jul 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Lingfield (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 13y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +15.00pp · around 11/4 (3.86 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 2/5 (40%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.8%. Small sample.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/2 (6.28 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 4/21 (19%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.8%.

Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 4/1 (4.78 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 2/10 (20%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.8%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksKnightmareDraw 10
Trainer: David Evans
Jockey: Jack Callan
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run25 days ago · 29 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 0.6f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP9/41 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +13.0% • +1.25pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.42pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 14/1 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 14/1 → 14/1 (+0.42pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.83pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 15 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 02 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 5/1 → final market price 5/2 (+11.90pp).

Opened 11/1Market avg 9/1Implied win: 9.6% · Loss: 90.4%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.83pp(+9.0%)
8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
11/1 12 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 11/1SportingIndex 11/1Spreadex 11/17Bet 10/1BetWright 10/1Coral 10/1Dragon Bet 10/1Ladbrokes 10/1LiveScore Bet 10/1Star Sports 10/1Virgin Bet 10/1William Hill 10/110 Bet 9/1BetTom 9/1Betfred 9/1Hollywood Bets 9/1Midnite 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1Unibet 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1Paddy Power 9/1Bet Victor 8/1BetMGM 8/1Betano 8/1Boyle Sports 8/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners11/1-0.42ppOpen → 10am11/1+1.25pp10am → now; SP pending9/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.83ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+1.25pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 15 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Knightmare is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Drifted by 0.42pp by 10am. Shortened by 1.25pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ffos Las · 28 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Ffos Las✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 13y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 13/2 (7.27 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 7/44 (15.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksDumfriesDraw 6
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Jockey: William Pyle
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD0/2 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 12/1 · 13% shorter today
Last run14 days ago · 10 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +28.2% • +2.31pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.04pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 14/1 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 14/1 → 14/1 (+0.04pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +2.28pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
83th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE83rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 6 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Beverley, 28 Jul 2026 — 5th • open 12/1 → final market price 17/2 (+2.83pp).

Opened 16/1Market avg 11/1Implied win: 8.2% · Loss: 91.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.28pp(+27.9%)
10/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
12/1 13 decimal 7Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
7Bet 12/1Bet365 12/1BetWright 12/1Coral 12/1Dragon Bet 12/1Ladbrokes 12/1SportingIndex 12/1Spreadex 12/1Star Sports 12/110 Bet 11/1BetTom 11/1Betfred 11/1Hollywood Bets 11/1LiveScore Bet 11/1Midnite 11/1Quinn Bet 11/1Unibet 11/1Virgin Bet 11/1William Hill 11/1Betfair Sportsbook 11/1Paddy Power 11/1Bet Victor 10/1BetMGM 10/1Betano 10/1Boyle Sports 10/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners16/1+5.19ppOpen → 10am8/1-2.91pp10am → now; SP pending11/1Current; SP pendingPending+2.28ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.91pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 6 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Dumfries is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 5.19pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.91pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 4pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 9/29 (31%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Wolverhampton (AW) · 29 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Wolverhampton (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 13y · previous 1m 142y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 8/1 (9.16 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 18/86 (20.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.9%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: James Owen
Jockey: Robert Havlin
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run17 days ago · 7 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +20.2% • +1.20pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.14pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 18/1 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 18/1 → 18/1 (-0.14pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.35pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newmarket, 15 May 2026 — 7th • open 16/1 → final market price 14/1 (+0.78pp).

Opened 20/1Market avg 16/1Implied win: 6.0% · Loss: 94.0%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.35pp(+22.0%)
14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
18/1 19 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 18/1Coral 18/1Ladbrokes 18/1Star Sports 18/17Bet 16/1BetTom 16/1BetWright 16/1Betfred 16/1Dragon Bet 16/1Hollywood Bets 16/1LiveScore Bet 16/1Midnite 16/1Quinn Bet 16/1SportingIndex 16/1Spreadex 16/1Virgin Bet 16/1Betfair Sportsbook 16/1Paddy Power 16/110 Bet 14/1Bet Victor 14/1BetMGM 14/1Betano 14/1Boyle Sports 14/1Unibet 14/1William Hill 14/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners20/1+3.07ppOpen → 10am12/1-1.73pp10am → now; SP pending16/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.35ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.73pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Blue Samuna is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 3.07pp by 10am. Drifted by 1.73pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 9/1 (10.40 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 66/220 (30%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16.2%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 18:58
  • Supported1 of 13 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Love You More +11.89pp
  • Drifting3 of 13 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Crown The Future -5.75pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Kev +4.04pp · biggest drift: Love You More -4.04pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Kev
15-minute snapshot 18:57 · no additional market query
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