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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
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Market overview
Runners Today
8
Shown After Filters
2
Active Signals (15%+)
5
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Al Arraab
72
20:00 Southwell (AW)
+6.07pp
True move after NR adjustment · 7/1 → 9/2
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Flick of An Eye
50
20:00 Southwell (AW)
-5.69pp
True move after NR adjustment · 6/4 → 15/8
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
20:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 6f16y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
2 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

20:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksCrystal DarkDraw 1
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run21 days ago · 3 Oct 2026
Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +3.7% • +1.31pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.59pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 13/8 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 13/8 → 13/8 (+0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.72pp
Built 00:00 → 18:53
Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final market support in the recorded sample.

Opened 15/8Market avg 7/4Implied win: 35.8% · Loss: 64.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.72pp(+2.0%)
13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4
BEST FIXED ODDS
2/1 3 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 2/17Bet 15/8BetMGM 15/8BetWright 15/8Betfred 15/8Dragon Bet 15/8Hollywood Bets 15/8LiveScore Bet 15/8Quinn Bet 15/8Virgin Bet 15/8William Hill 15/8Paddy Power 15/810 Bet 7/4BetTom 7/4Coral 7/4Ladbrokes 7/4Midnite 7/4Star Sports 7/4Unibet 7/4Betfair Sportsbook 7/4Bet Victor 13/8Betano 13/8Boyle Sports 13/8SportingIndex 13/8Spreadex 13/8
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners15/8+6.94ppOpen → 10am11/8-6.23pp10am → now; SP pending7/4Current; SP pendingPending+0.72ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-6.23pp since 10am, as of 19:47. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 3 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Crystal Dark is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 6.94pp by 10am. Drifted by 6.23pp since 10am. As of 19:47; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 6/19 (31.6%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 05 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 6f 16y · previous 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 6/4 (2.50 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 27/104 (26%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksAl ArraabDraw 3
Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey: Oisin Orr
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run51 days ago · 3 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +34.0% • +6.44pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.37pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/2 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 11/2 → 11/2 (+0.37pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +6.07pp
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Haydock, 03 Sep 2026 — 2nd • open 18/1 → final market price 10/1 (+3.69pp).

Opened 7/1Market avg 9/2Implied win: 18.9% · Loss: 81.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+6.07pp(+32.7%)
4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 5/110 Bet 9/2Betfred 9/2Coral 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2LiveScore Bet 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/2Virgin Bet 9/2William Hill 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 9/2Paddy Power 9/2Bet Victor 4/1BetMGM 4/1BetTom 4/1BetWright 4/1Betano 4/1Boyle Sports 4/1Dragon Bet 4/1Hollywood Bets 4/1SportingIndex 4/1Spreadex 4/17Bet 7/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners7/1+9.35ppOpen → 10am7/2-3.28pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending+6.07ppNR adjusted
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+6.07ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer9.7% → 28.7%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 87 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-3.28pp since 10am, as of 19:47. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 3 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

Richard & Peter Fahey runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 25/87 (a 28.7% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.7% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 3 to Class 4, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Al Arraab has shortened from 7/1 to 9/2, which is support (+6.07pp).

Shortened by 9.35pp by 10am. Drifted by 3.28pp since 10am. As of 19:47; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 8pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/10 (30%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Haydock · 03 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Haydock✓Trip (within ½f): 6f 16y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Soft×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 10/3 (4.37 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 12/33 (36.4%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 9/2 (5.60 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 25/87 (28.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:47
  • Supported1 of 7 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Al Arraab +6.07pp
  • Drifting2 of 7 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: The Honey Thief -6.22pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Flick of An Eye +3.03pp · biggest drift: Crystal Dark -3.03pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Flick of An Eye
15-minute snapshot 19:46 · no additional market query
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