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See what today’s price moves mean.
LIVE · Updated 16:25:02
Featured meeting preview: Southwell (AW)
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Market overview
Runners Today
13
Shown After Filters
8
Active Signals (15%+)
10
01 · Strongest support
Rhythm N Hooves
+5.88pp
True move after NR adjustment · 9/2 → 10/3
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Moulin Booj
-6.36pp
True move after NR adjustment · 5/1 → 9/1
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
17:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 4f214y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
8 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.
Full field shown.
Off — prices frozen↔ SAME CLASS
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Jockey: Kevin Stott
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 13/2 · Today close to the course average
Last run35 days ago · 19 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP3/11 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -26.3% • -3.47pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.22pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 5/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 5/1 → 5/1 (+0.22pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -3.69pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 12 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Ascot, 08 May 2026 — 9th • open 6/1 → final market price 14/1 (-7.62pp).
Opened 5/1Market avg 13/2Implied win: 13.2% · Loss: 86.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-3.69pp(-28.5%)
6/1 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 13/2 → 13/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
7/1
8 decimal
Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 7/1Coral 7/1Ladbrokes 7/1LiveScore Bet 7/1Midnite 7/1Quinn Bet 7/1Star Sports 7/1Unibet 7/1Virgin Bet 7/1William Hill 7/1Betfair Sportsbook 7/110 Bet 13/27Bet 13/2BetTom 13/2BetWright 13/2Betfred 13/2Dragon Bet 13/2Paddy Power 13/2Bet Victor 6/1BetMGM 6/1Betano 6/1Boyle Sports 6/1Hollywood Bets 6/1SportingIndex 6/1Spreadex 6/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago7/1
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago13/2
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago6/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 5/1 | +1.30ppOpen → 10am | 9/2 | -4.99pp10am → now; SP pending | 13/2Current; SP pending | Pending | -3.69ppNR adjusted |
| Chepstow21 May 20265f 15y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 3/1 | -2.78ppOpen → 10am | 7/2 | +2.78pp10am → SP | 3/1 | 1st | +0.00pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 5/1 | +1.30ppOpen → 10am | 9/2 | -4.99pp10am → now; SP pending | 13/2Current; SP pending | Pending | -3.69ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.99pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Back to the 10am position · around 9/2 (5.50 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
Trainer support level
Support of +5.00pp · around 7/2 (4.57 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 40/159 (25.2%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12%.
Trainer support level
Support of +10.00pp · around 11/4 (3.72 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 27/71 (38%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12%.
Trainer support level
Support of +15.00pp · around 9/4 (3.14 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 10/32 (31.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12%.
Trainer support level
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.Support of +20.00pp · around 7/4 (2.71 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 4/10 (40%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12%.
TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Off — prices frozen
Trainer: George Scott
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
↔ SAME CLASSSURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 14/1 · 35% shorter today
Last run28 days ago · 26 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP6/13 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -62.7% • -6.42pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.06pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 7/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 7/1 → 7/1 (-0.06pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -6.36pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
73th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE73rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NORMAL HISTORICAL RANGE
3 of 11 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 1st at Southwell (AW) on 26 Sep 2026 (-11.52pp); finished 11th at Wolverhampton (AW) on 20 Mar 2026 (-6.62pp); and finished 4th at Chelmsford (AW) on 21 Feb 2026 (-7.26pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.When drifting like this: failed 3/4Historical Drift Profile
26 Sep 26 | Southwell (AW) | Open: 9/2 → Final: 14/1 | SP: 14/1 | Fin: 1
03 Apr 26 | Lingfield (AW) | Open: 14/1 → Final: 33/1 | SP: 33/1 | Fin: 6
20 Mar 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 7/1 → Final: 16/1 | SP: 16/1 | Fin: 11
21 Feb 26 | Chelmsford (AW) | Open: 8/1 → Final: 25/1 | SP: 20/1 | Fin: 4
26 Sep 26 | Southwell (AW) | Open: 9/2 → Final: 14/1 | SP: 14/1 | Fin: 1
03 Apr 26 | Lingfield (AW) | Open: 14/1 → Final: 33/1 | SP: 33/1 | Fin: 6
20 Mar 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 7/1 → Final: 16/1 | SP: 16/1 | Fin: 11
21 Feb 26 | Chelmsford (AW) | Open: 8/1 → Final: 25/1 | SP: 20/1 | Fin: 4
When drifting like this: failed 3/4 — view runs
26 Sep 2026 · Southwell (AW)
Open 9/2 → final 14/1 · SP 14/1 · 1st
Open 9/2 → final 14/1 · SP 14/1 · 1st
03 Apr 2026 · Lingfield (AW)
Open 14/1 → final 33/1 · SP 33/1 · 6th
Open 14/1 → final 33/1 · SP 33/1 · 6th
20 Mar 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)
Open 7/1 → final 16/1 · SP 16/1 · 11th
Open 7/1 → final 16/1 · SP 16/1 · 11th
21 Feb 2026 · Chelmsford (AW)
Open 8/1 → final 25/1 · SP 20/1 · 4th
Open 8/1 → final 25/1 · SP 20/1 · 4th
Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Southwell (AW), 26 Sep 2026 — 1st • open 9/2 → final market price 14/1 (-11.52pp).
Opened 5/1Market avg 9/1Implied win: 10.2% · Loss: 89.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-6.36pp(-61.7%)
8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 → 17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/1
10 decimal
10 Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
10 Bet 9/1Bet365 9/1Betfred 9/1Coral 9/1Hollywood Bets 9/1Ladbrokes 9/1LiveScore Bet 9/1Midnite 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1SportingIndex 9/1Spreadex 9/1Star Sports 9/1Unibet 9/1Virgin Bet 9/1William Hill 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1Paddy Power 9/17Bet 17/2BetTom 17/2BetWright 17/2Dragon Bet 17/2Bet Victor 8/1BetMGM 8/1Betano 8/1Boyle Sports 8/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 5/1 | -3.27ppOpen → 10am | 13/2 | -3.09pp10am → now; SP pending | 9/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -6.36ppNR adjusted |
| Southwell (AW)26 Sep 20264f 215y · Class 4 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 9/2 | -6.42ppOpen → 10am | 15/2 | -5.10pp10am → SP | 14/1 | 1st | -11.52pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Nottingham11 Aug 20265f 8y · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 15/8 | +1.64ppOpen → 10am | 7/4 | +3.64pp10am → SP | 6/4 | 1st | +5.28pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Thirsk01 Aug 20265f · Class 4 · Good · 12 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 5/1 | -1.28ppOpen → 10am | 11/2 | +1.28pp10am → SP | 5/1 | 2nd | +0.00pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Brighton21 Jun 20265f 60y · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 10/3 | +0.00ppOpen → 10am | 10/3 | -3.09pp10am → SP | 4/1 | 2nd | -3.09pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Wolverhampton (AW)09 Mar 20265f 21y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 11/4 | +6.67ppOpen → 10am | 2/1 | +1.39pp10am → SP | 15/8 | 1st | +8.06pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 5/1 | -3.27ppOpen → 10am | 13/2 | -3.09pp10am → now; SP pending | 9/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -6.36ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
MEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTEDMarket-6.36ppMarket weakness from the opening price.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyMissed top 2: 3/4Displayed comparable drift runs: 1 first/second finishes in 4 completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-3.09pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Back to the 10am position · around 13/2 (7.50 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
Trainer support level
Support of +5.00pp · around 7/2 (4.63 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 23/53 (43.4%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 17.5%.
Trainer support level
Support of +10.00pp · around 11/4 (3.76 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 9/25 (36%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 17.5%.
Trainer support level
Support of +15.00pp · around 9/4 (3.16 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 4/10 (40%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 17.5%.
Current support is below target while the horse is drifting. Any earlier recorded hit is retained above so you can see that the move reversed. Check whether it recovers rather than treating the bigger odds as value on their own.
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Off — prices frozen⬇ CLASS DROP
Trainer: Christopher Mason
Jockey: Gina Mangan
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run21 days ago · 3 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -32.0% • -3.23pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.13pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 7/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 7/1 → 7/1 (-0.13pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -3.11pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
71th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE71st HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 7 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.When drifting like this: failed 2/3Historical Drift Profile
28 Jul 26 | Goodwood | Open: 10/1 → Final: 14/1 | SP: 12/1 | Fin: 3
22 Jun 26 | Windsor | Open: 11/2 → Final: 15/2 | SP: 6/1 | Fin: 2
22 May 26 | Goodwood | Open: 10/1 → Final: 20/1 | SP: 20/1 | Fin: 3
28 Jul 26 | Goodwood | Open: 10/1 → Final: 14/1 | SP: 12/1 | Fin: 3
22 Jun 26 | Windsor | Open: 11/2 → Final: 15/2 | SP: 6/1 | Fin: 2
22 May 26 | Goodwood | Open: 10/1 → Final: 20/1 | SP: 20/1 | Fin: 3
When drifting like this: failed 2/3 — view runs
28 Jul 2026 · Goodwood
Open 10/1 → final 14/1 · SP 12/1 · 3rd
Open 10/1 → final 14/1 · SP 12/1 · 3rd
22 Jun 2026 · Windsor
Open 11/2 → final 15/2 · SP 6/1 · 2nd
Open 11/2 → final 15/2 · SP 6/1 · 2nd
22 May 2026 · Goodwood
Open 10/1 → final 20/1 · SP 20/1 · 3rd
Open 10/1 → final 20/1 · SP 20/1 · 3rd
Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Goodwood, 22 May 2026 — 3rd • open 10/1 → final market price 20/1 (-4.33pp).
Opened 13/2Market avg 9/1Implied win: 10.1% · Loss: 89.9%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-3.11pp(-30.4%)
8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
![Hollywood Bets]()
10/1
11 decimal
Hollywood Bets
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Hollywood Bets 10/1SportingIndex 10/1Spreadex 10/110 Bet 9/1Bet365 9/1BetWright 9/1Betfred 9/1Coral 9/1Dragon Bet 9/1Ladbrokes 9/1LiveScore Bet 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1Star Sports 9/1Unibet 9/1Virgin Bet 9/1William Hill 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1Paddy Power 9/17Bet 17/2BetTom 17/2Midnite 17/2Bet Victor 8/1BetMGM 8/1Betano 8/1Boyle Sports 8/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago10/1
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago10/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago10/1
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago9/1
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago17/2
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago8/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 13/2 | +1.08ppOpen → 10am | 6/1 | -4.18pp10am → now; SP pending | 9/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -3.11ppNR adjusted |
| Windsor22 Jun 20265f 21y · Class 3 · Good To Firm · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 11/2 | -3.62ppOpen → 10am | 15/2 | +2.52pp10am → SP | 6/1 | 2nd | -1.10pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 13/2 | +1.08ppOpen → 10am | 6/1 | -4.18pp10am → now; SP pending | 9/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -3.11ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.18pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Back to the 10am position · around 6/1 (7.00 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
Trainer support level
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.Support of +5.00pp · around 9/2 (5.49 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 4/13 (30.8%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 18.3%.
TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Off — prices frozen
Trainer: Scott Dixon
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
↔ SAME CLASSSURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 17/2 · 184% bigger today
Last run25 days ago · 29 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP5/13 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -58.6% • -2.17pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.17pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 20/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 20/1 → 20/1 (-0.17pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -2.00pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
42th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE42nd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 12 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.When drifting like this: failed 5/7Historical Drift Profile
26 Jun 26 | Doncaster | Open: 16/1 → Final: 28/1 | SP: 25/1 | Fin: 4
29 May 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 13/2 → Final: 14/1 | SP: 14/1 | Fin: 5
30 Apr 26 | Southwell (AW) | Open: 15/2 → Final: 11/1 | SP: 17/2 | Fin: 3
17 Apr 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 10/1 → Final: 18/1 | SP: 14/1 | Fin: 3
09 Mar 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 5/1 → Final: 10/1 | SP: 8/1 | Fin: 5
26 Jun 26 | Doncaster | Open: 16/1 → Final: 28/1 | SP: 25/1 | Fin: 4
29 May 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 13/2 → Final: 14/1 | SP: 14/1 | Fin: 5
30 Apr 26 | Southwell (AW) | Open: 15/2 → Final: 11/1 | SP: 17/2 | Fin: 3
17 Apr 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 10/1 → Final: 18/1 | SP: 14/1 | Fin: 3
09 Mar 26 | Wolverhampton (AW) | Open: 5/1 → Final: 10/1 | SP: 8/1 | Fin: 5
When drifting like this: failed 5/7 — view runs
26 Jun 2026 · Doncaster
Open 16/1 → final 28/1 · SP 25/1 · 4th
Open 16/1 → final 28/1 · SP 25/1 · 4th
29 May 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)
Open 13/2 → final 14/1 · SP 14/1 · 5th
Open 13/2 → final 14/1 · SP 14/1 · 5th
30 Apr 2026 · Southwell (AW)
Open 15/2 → final 11/1 · SP 17/2 · 3rd
Open 15/2 → final 11/1 · SP 17/2 · 3rd
17 Apr 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)
Open 10/1 → final 18/1 · SP 14/1 · 3rd
Open 10/1 → final 18/1 · SP 14/1 · 3rd
09 Mar 2026 · Wolverhampton (AW)
Open 5/1 → final 10/1 · SP 8/1 · 5th
Open 5/1 → final 10/1 · SP 8/1 · 5th
Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Wolverhampton (AW), 16 Feb 2026 — 2nd • open 13/8 → final market price 5/2 (-9.45pp).
Opened 16/1Market avg 25/1Implied win: 3.7% · Loss: 96.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-2.00pp(-51.7%)
22/1 ↑ 25/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 25/1 → 25/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 22/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 25/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
![7Bet]()
28/1
31 decimal
7Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
7Bet 28/1Bet365 28/1Coral 28/1Ladbrokes 28/1LiveScore Bet 28/1Midnite 28/1SportingIndex 28/1Spreadex 28/1Star Sports 28/1Unibet 28/1Virgin Bet 28/1William Hill 28/110 Bet 25/1BetTom 25/1BetWright 25/1Betfred 25/1Dragon Bet 25/1Hollywood Bets 25/1Quinn Bet 25/1Betfair Sportsbook 25/1Paddy Power 25/1Bet Victor 22/1Betano 22/1Boyle Sports 22/1BetMGM 20/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago22/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago22/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago22/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago20/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 16/1 | -0.45ppOpen → 10am | 18/1 | -1.55pp10am → now; SP pending | 25/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -2.00ppNR adjusted |
| Doncaster03 Jul 20265f 3y · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 10/1 | +4.24ppOpen → 10am | 13/2 | +4.85pp10am → SP | 9/2 | 1st | +9.09pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Wolverhampton (AW)16 Feb 20265f 21y · Class 4 · Standard · 5 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 13/8 | +0.00ppOpen → 10am | 13/8 | -13.02pp10am → SP | 3/1 | 2nd | -13.02pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Wolverhampton (AW)13 Feb 20265f 21y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 10/3 | -0.87ppOpen → 10am | 7/2 | +6.35pp10am → SP | 5/2 | 1st | +5.48pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Wolverhampton (AW)09 Feb 20265f 21y · Class 5 · Standard · 9 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 9/2 | +5.63ppOpen → 10am | 10/3 | -12.70pp10am → SP | 8/1 | 1st | -7.07pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 16/1 | -0.45ppOpen → 10am | 18/1 | -1.55pp10am → now; SP pending | 25/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -2.00ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.55pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Back to the 10am position · around 18/1 (19.00 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
Trainer support level
Support of +5.00pp · around 17/2 (9.33 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 6/47 (12.8%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.2%.
Trainer support level
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.Support of +10.00pp · around 11/2 (6.36 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 3/18 (16.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.2%.
TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Off — prices frozen
Trainer: Patrick Morris
Jockey: Jack Dace(5)
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
⬇ CLASS DROPSURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run41 days ago · 13 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP10/13 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -35.2% • -1.24pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.20pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 25/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 25/1 → 25/1 (-0.20pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -1.04pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
30th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE30th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 10 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Lingfield (AW), 12 Feb 2026 — 1st • open EVS → final market price 11/4 (-23.33pp).
Opened 20/1Market avg 28/1Implied win: 3.5% · Loss: 96.5%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-1.04pp(-28.0%)
25/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 28/1 → 28/1 ↓ 20/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 28/1 ↓ 28/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
![7Bet]()
28/1
31 decimal
7Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
7Bet 28/110 Bet 28/1Bet365 28/1BetTom 28/1BetWright 28/1Betfred 28/1Coral 28/1Dragon Bet 28/1Hollywood Bets 28/1Ladbrokes 28/1LiveScore Bet 28/1Midnite 28/1Quinn Bet 28/1SportingIndex 28/1Spreadex 28/1Star Sports 28/1Unibet 28/1Virgin Bet 28/1William Hill 28/1Betfair Sportsbook 28/1Paddy Power 28/1Bet Victor 25/1Betano 25/1Boyle Sports 25/1BetMGM 20/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago20/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 20/1 | +0.20ppOpen → 10am | 20/1 | -1.24pp10am → now; SP pending | 28/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -1.04ppNR adjusted |
| Chester22 Aug 20265f 15y · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 14/1 | -0.78ppOpen → 10am | 16/1 | -1.53pp10am → SP | 22/1 | 1st | -2.32pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Lingfield (AW)12 Feb 20265f 6y · Class 5 · Standard · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | EVS | -21.43ppOpen → 10am | 5/2 | +0.00pp10am → SP | 5/2 | 1st | -21.43pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Lingfield (AW)24 Jan 20265f 6y · Class 5 · Standard · 6 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 16/1 | +0.00ppOpen → 10am | 16/1 | +10.78pp10am → SP | 5/1 | 1st | +10.78pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 20/1 | +0.20ppOpen → 10am | 20/1 | -1.24pp10am → now; SP pending | 28/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -1.04ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.24pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Back to the 10am position · around 20/1 (21.00 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
Trainer support level
Support of +5.00pp · around 9/1 (10.46 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 4/29 (13.8%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.4%.
Trainer support level
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.Support of +10.00pp · around 6/1 (6.87 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 1/7 (14.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.4%. Small sample.
TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Off — prices frozen
Trainer: Lisa Williamson
Jockey: Harry Davies
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
↔ SAME CLASSSURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run21 days ago · 3 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP7/21 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -74.5% • -2.25pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.16pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 25/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 25/1 → 25/1 (-0.16pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -2.09pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Nottingham, 20 Jun 2026 — 6th • open 15/8 → final market price 10/3 (-11.63pp).
Opened 18/1Market avg 33/1Implied win: 3.0% · Loss: 97.0%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-2.09pp(-65.7%)
28/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 33/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
![7Bet]()
33/1
36 decimal
7Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
7Bet 33/110 Bet 33/1Bet365 33/1BetTom 33/1BetWright 33/1Betfred 33/1Coral 33/1Dragon Bet 33/1Hollywood Bets 33/1Ladbrokes 33/1LiveScore Bet 33/1Midnite 33/1Quinn Bet 33/1SportingIndex 33/1Spreadex 33/1Star Sports 33/1Unibet 33/1Virgin Bet 33/1William Hill 33/1Betfair Sportsbook 33/1Paddy Power 33/1Bet Victor 28/1Betano 28/1Boyle Sports 28/1BetMGM 25/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 18/1 | -0.34ppOpen → 10am | 20/1 | -1.75pp10am → now; SP pending | 33/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -2.09ppNR adjusted |
| Nottingham31 May 20265f 8y · Class 4 · Good · 7 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 9/1 | +5.38ppOpen → 10am | 11/2 | +6.84pp10am → SP | 7/2 | 1st | +12.22pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Musselburgh29 Apr 20265f 1y · Class 4 · Good · 8 runnersClick for post-race comment ▾ | 12/1 | +2.31ppOpen → 10am | 9/1 | -2.31pp10am → SP | 12/1 | 2nd | +0.00pp |
| Post-race comment | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 18/1 | -0.34ppOpen → 10am | 20/1 | -1.75pp10am → now; SP pending | 33/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -2.09ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.75pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.Back to the 10am position · around 20/1 (21.00 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Off — prices frozen↔ SAME CLASS
Trainer: Ian Williams
Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh(3)
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD0/2 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 8/1 · 285% bigger today
Last run48 days ago · 6 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -159.4% • -4.73pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.08pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 22/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 22/1 → 22/1 (-0.08pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -4.64pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
88th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE88th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 8 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 26 Jun 2026 (-7.05pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.Previous market evidence
Largest previous Open → final market drift: Newcastle (AW), 26 Jun 2026 — 6th • open 11/2 → final market price 11/1 (-7.05pp).
Opened 12/1Market avg 33/1Implied win: 3.0% · Loss: 97.0%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-4.64pp(-152.2%)
28/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 25/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 33/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
40/1
41 decimal
SportingIndex
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
SportingIndex 40/1Spreadex 40/17Bet 33/110 Bet 33/1Bet365 33/1BetTom 33/1BetWright 33/1Betfred 33/1Coral 33/1Dragon Bet 33/1Hollywood Bets 33/1Ladbrokes 33/1LiveScore Bet 33/1Midnite 33/1Quinn Bet 33/1Star Sports 33/1Unibet 33/1Virgin Bet 33/1William Hill 33/1Betfair Sportsbook 33/1Paddy Power 33/1Bet Victor 28/1Betano 28/1Boyle Sports 28/1BetMGM 25/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for allCompare all fixed odds
Mixed market: 0 shortening, 0 drifting
SportingIndex→ unchanged · 2m ago40/1
Spreadex→ unchanged · 2m ago40/1
7Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
10 Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Bet365→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
BetTom→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
BetWright→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Betfred→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Coral→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Dragon Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Hollywood Bets→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Ladbrokes→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
LiveScore Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Midnite→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Quinn Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Star Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Unibet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Virgin Bet→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
William Hill→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Betfair Sportsbook→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Paddy Power→ unchanged · 2m ago33/1
Bet Victor→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Betano→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
Boyle Sports→ unchanged · 2m ago28/1
BetMGM→ unchanged · 2m ago25/1
25 bookmakers comparedWhat do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?
Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 12/1 | -2.85ppOpen → 10am | 20/1 | -1.80pp10am → now; SP pending | 33/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -4.64ppNR adjusted |
| No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet. | |||||||
| Racecourse | Open | Open → 10am | 10am | 10am → SP/Now | SP / current | Finish | Open → SP/Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners | 12/1 | -2.85ppOpen → 10am | 20/1 | -1.80pp10am → now; SP pending | 33/1Current; SP pending | Pending | -4.64ppNR adjusted |
| Open this tab to load the five worst recorded finishing positions. | |||||||
MEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTEDMarket-4.64ppMarket weakness from the opening price.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.80pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price
Back to the 10am position · around 20/1 (21.00 decimal).
Watch for the price to recover to this level.A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.
Trainer support level
Support of +5.00pp · around 7/1 (7.93 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 27/108 (25%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10.3%.
Trainer support level
Support of +10.00pp · around 9/2 (5.68 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 16/49 (32.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10.3%.
Trainer support level
Support of +15.00pp · around 7/2 (4.42 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 9/23 (39.1%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10.3%.
Trainer support level
Support of +20.00pp · around 5/2 (3.62 decimal).
Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.Trainer won 3/8 (37.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10.3%. Small sample.
Current support is below target while the horse is drifting. Any earlier recorded hit is retained above so you can see that the move reversed. Check whether it recovers rather than treating the bigger odds as value on their own.
Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.TIMING & CONTEXT
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Weakening late
Wateen
NON-RUNNERNR @ 08:55
Non-runner adjustment audit
NR recorded: 08:55:29 · recorded declaration time
Last recorded market average before NR: 40/1 (39.391) at 08:52:09
Implied probability: 2.54%
Snapshot 200 seconds before the recorded NR time.
The last captured price is shown, not an assumed exact withdrawal price. Adjustments below use each remaining horse’s measured pre/post-NR price change.
| Remaining horse | Before NR / captured | Post-NR baseline | Effect removed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsen | 5/1 (6.080) 08:52:09 | 5/1 (6.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | +0.22pp |
| Moulin Booj | 7/1 (7.960) 08:52:09 | 7/1 (8.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | -0.06pp |
| Glamorous Breeze | 7/1 (7.920) 08:52:09 | 7/1 (8.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | -0.13pp |
| Alondra | 20/1 (20.280) 08:52:09 | 20/1 (21.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | -0.17pp |
| Henrythenate | 25/1 (24.720) 08:52:09 | 25/1 (26.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | -0.20pp |
| Sugar Hill Babe | 25/1 (24.960) 08:52:09 | 25/1 (26.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | -0.16pp |
| Kanishka | 22/1 (22.560) 08:52:09 | 22/1 (23.000) Baseline reference 08:55:29 | -0.08pp |
Effect removed = (100 ÷ post-NR baseline) − (100 ÷ pre-NR price). True move = raw Open → Now move − total signed NR effects.
The post-NR baseline can be the median of captured bookmaker prices within five minutes after the NR, or the first available timeline price. Its reference time is not necessarily an individual price capture. Fractional prices are rounded; decimal prices are included for checking. Simultaneous withdrawals share one measured event.
- Supported2 of 12 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Rhythm N Hooves +5.88pp
- Drifting2 of 12 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Moulin Booj -6.36pp
- Last 15 minFresh 15-minute data is not available yet.
- Market surgesAwaiting a fresh 15-minute snapshot.
Price Movement
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