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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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LIVE · Updated 20:08:23
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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
ALLBACKED 💰DRIFTERS
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Market overview
Runners Today
14
Shown After Filters
3
Active Signals (15%+)
10
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Mehmar
65
20:30 Southwell (AW)
+15.30pp
True move after NR adjustment · 11/2 → 15/8
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Age of Time
41
20:30 Southwell (AW)
-4.54pp
True move after NR adjustment · 7/2 → 7/2
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
20:30Southwell (AW) • Flat • 6f16y • Class 6 • Going: Standard
3 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

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20:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksMehmarDraw 7
Trainer: Jack Jones
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
PRO RACECARD ↗
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run94 days ago · 22 Jul 2026
Distance changeDown 1.9f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +55.6% • +19.30pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +4.00pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/4 @ 11:03
NR @ 07:37: 5/1 → 9/2 (+1.04pp removed)
NR @ 08:12: 4/1 → 7/2 (+1.71pp removed)
NR @ 11:03: 5/2 → 9/4 (+1.25pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +15.30pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 10 previous runs.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
0/2 placed when backed like this (0%).
When backed like this: 0/2 WON
Built 18:42 → 18:57
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Fairyhouse (IRE), 28 May 2026 — 5th • open 16/1 → final market price 5/1 (+10.78pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Fairyhouse (IRE), 28 May 2026 — 5th • open 16/1 → final 5/1
  • Dundalk (AW) (IRE), 16 Jan 2026 — 6th • open 33/1 → final 10/1
Opened 11/2Market avg 15/8Implied win: 34.7% · Loss: 65.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+15.30pp(+49.9%)
7/4 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 15/8
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.25 decimal SportingIndex
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
SportingIndex 9/4Spreadex 9/4BetMGM 2/1Betfred 2/1Virgin Bet 2/1William Hill 2/17Bet 15/810 Bet 15/8Bet365 15/8BetWright 15/8Dragon Bet 15/8Midnite 15/8Quinn Bet 15/8Unibet 15/8Paddy Power 15/8Bet Victor 7/4BetTom 7/4Betano 7/4Boyle Sports 7/4Coral 7/4Hollywood Bets 7/4Ladbrokes 7/4Star Sports 7/4Betfair Sportsbook 7/4
24 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners11/2+15.20ppOpen → 10am2/1+0.10pp10am → now; SP pending15/8Current; SP pendingPending+15.30ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+15.30ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer12.7% → 33.3%Open → SP · backed 15pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 9 runners, Open → SP · backed 15pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyMissed top 2: 2/2Comparable support: 0 first/second finishes in 2 completed runs.Since 10amHolding+0.10pp since 10am, as of 20:07. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Jack Jones runners in the matching 15pp+ band have won 3/9 (a 33.3% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 12.7% strike rate. Across 10 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support compared with its previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. Today’s move: Mehmar has shortened from 11/2 to 15/8, which is exceptional support (+15.30pp).

Shortened by 15.20pp by 10am. Shortened by 0.10pp more since 10am. As of 20:07; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +20.00pp · around 6/4 (2.54 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 3/5 (60%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%. Small sample.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 3/1 (4.10 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 15/41 (36.6%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 5/2 (3.40 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 6/17 (35.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +15.00pp · around 15/8 (2.91 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 3/9 (33.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%. Small sample.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksEdmond HalleyDraw 13
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Jockey: Jack Callan
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run12 days ago · 12 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +22.9% • +4.56pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.61pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/2 @ 11:03
NR @ 07:37: 6/1 → 11/2 (+0.97pp removed)
NR @ 08:12: 5/1 → 11/2 (-0.72pp removed)
NR @ 11:03: 9/2 → 9/2 (+0.37pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +3.95pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE67th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 9 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
0/3 placed when backed like this (0%).
When backed like this: 0/3 WON
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Hamilton, 21 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 11/4 → final market price 4/5 (+28.53pp).

All 3 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Musselburgh, 25 Aug 2026 — 5th • open 7/2 → final 5/2
  • Catterick, 15 Jul 2026 — 5th • open 15/2 → final 6/1
  • Naas (IRE), 22 Mar 2026 — 10th • open 25/1 → final 20/1
Opened 11/2Market avg 4/1Implied win: 19.9% · Loss: 80.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+3.95pp(+20.4%)
4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 5/1Betfred 9/2William Hill 9/210 Bet 4/17Bet 4/1Bet Victor 4/1BetTom 4/1BetWright 4/1Betano 4/1Boyle Sports 4/1Coral 4/1Dragon Bet 4/1Hollywood Bets 4/1Ladbrokes 4/1Midnite 4/1Quinn Bet 4/1Star Sports 4/1Unibet 4/1Virgin Bet 4/1Betfair Sportsbook 4/1Paddy Power 4/1SportingIndex 7/2Spreadex 7/2BetMGM 10/3
24 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners11/2+8.18ppOpen → 10am10/3-4.23pp10am → now; SP pending4/1Current; SP pendingPending+3.95ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.23pp since 10am, as of 20:07. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 9 previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 3 runs. Today’s move: Edmond Halley is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 8.18pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.23pp since 10am. As of 20:07; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 8pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/11 (27.3%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 4/1 (4.76 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 27/104 (26%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksUncle SamDraw 1
Trainer: Ray Craggs
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 4/1 · 13% bigger today
Last run29 days ago · 25 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +8.9% • +1.58pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +1.29pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/2 @ 11:03
NR @ 07:37: 11/2 → 11/2 (-0.20pp removed)
NR @ 08:12: 4/1 → 7/2 (+2.08pp removed)
NR @ 11:03: 9/2 → 9/2 (-0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.29pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newcastle (AW), 03 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 10/3 → final market price 5/2 (+4.76pp).

Opened 5/1Market avg 9/2Implied win: 17.7% · Loss: 82.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.29pp(+1.8%)
9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
6/1 7 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 6/1William Hill 11/2Betfred 5/1Unibet 5/110 Bet 9/27Bet 9/2Bet Victor 9/2BetMGM 9/2BetTom 9/2BetWright 9/2Betano 9/2Boyle Sports 9/2Coral 9/2Dragon Bet 9/2Hollywood Bets 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2SportingIndex 9/2Spreadex 9/2Star Sports 9/2Virgin Bet 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 9/2Paddy Power 9/2
24 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners5/1+5.08ppOpen → 10am10/3-4.80pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending+0.29ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.80pp since 10am, as of 20:07. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Uncle Sam is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 5.08pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.80pp since 10am. As of 20:07; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 25 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 6f 16y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW

No evidence-backed price trigger for this runner yet. Use Notify Me to monitor it; the current records do not justify a target price.

TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 20:10
  • Supported1 of 11 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Mehmar +15.30pp
  • Drifting3 of 11 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Piperstown -7.69pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Dr Ali +0.50pp · biggest drift: Piperstown -0.50pp
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 20:08 · no additional market query
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