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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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See what today’s price moves mean.

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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
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Market overview
Runners Today
8
Shown After Filters
8
Active Signals (15%+)
5
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Al Arraab
73
20:00 Southwell (AW)
+6.07pp
True move after NR adjustment · 7/1 → 9/2
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Flick of An Eye
50
20:00 Southwell (AW)
-5.54pp
True move after NR adjustment · 6/4 → 15/8
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
20:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 6f16y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
8 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

20:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run21 days ago · 3 Oct 2026
Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +3.7% • +1.31pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.59pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 13/8 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 13/8 → 13/8 (+0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.72pp
Built 00:00 → 18:47
Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final market support in the recorded sample.

Opened 15/8Market avg 7/4Implied win: 35.8% · Loss: 64.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.72pp(+2.0%)
13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4
BEST FIXED ODDS
2/1 3 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 2/17Bet 15/8BetMGM 15/8BetWright 15/8Betfred 15/8Dragon Bet 15/8Hollywood Bets 15/8Quinn Bet 15/8Virgin Bet 15/8William Hill 15/8Paddy Power 15/8LiveScore Bet 15/810 Bet 7/4BetTom 7/4Coral 7/4Ladbrokes 7/4Midnite 7/4Star Sports 7/4Unibet 7/4Betfair Sportsbook 7/4Bet Victor 13/8Betano 13/8Boyle Sports 13/8SportingIndex 13/8Spreadex 13/8
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners15/8+6.94ppOpen → 10am11/8-6.23pp10am → now; SP pending7/4Current; SP pendingPending+0.72ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-6.23pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 3 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Crystal Dark is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 6.94pp by 10am. Drifted by 6.23pp since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 6/19 (31.6%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 05 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 6f 16y · previous 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 6/4 (2.50 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 27/104 (26%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Simon Crisford
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run39 days ago · 15 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -16.7% • -5.72pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.18pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 7/4 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 7/4 → 7/4 (-0.18pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -5.54pp
Previous market evidence

Largest previous Open → final market drift: Newbury, 26 Aug 2026 — 3rd • open 6/1 → final market price 7/1 (-1.79pp).

Opened 6/4Market avg 15/8Implied win: 34.3% · Loss: 65.7%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-5.54pp(-16.1%)
2/1 → 2/1 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 → 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↑ 2/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
2/1 3 decimal 10 Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
10 Bet 2/1Bet365 2/1Betfred 2/1Boyle Sports 2/1Hollywood Bets 2/1Quinn Bet 2/1Star Sports 2/1Unibet 2/1Virgin Bet 2/1William Hill 2/1Betfair Sportsbook 2/1Paddy Power 2/1LiveScore Bet 2/17Bet 15/8BetTom 15/8BetWright 15/8Coral 15/8Dragon Bet 15/8Ladbrokes 15/8Midnite 15/8Bet Victor 7/4BetMGM 7/4Betano 7/4SportingIndex 7/4Spreadex 7/4
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners6/4+4.63ppOpen → 10am5/4-10.16pp10am → now; SP pending15/8Current; SP pendingPending-5.54ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
MEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTEDMarket-5.54ppMarket weakness from the opening price.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-10.16pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 2 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. This horse did not have a confirmed 5pp+ drift by 10am, so the trainer’s early-drift record is not being applied. Despite dropping from Class 2 to Class 4, the market is still weakening. Today’s move: Flick of An Eye has moved from 6/4 to 15/8, a developing drift (-5.54pp).

Shortened by 4.63pp by 10am. Drifted by 10.16pp since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 5/4 (2.25 decimal).

Watch for the price to recover to this level.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Current support is below target while the horse is drifting. Any earlier recorded hit is retained above so you can see that the move reversed. Check whether it recovers rather than treating the bigger odds as value on their own.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Now was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksAl ArraabDraw 3
Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey: Oisin Orr
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run51 days ago · 3 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +34.0% • +6.44pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.37pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/2 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 11/2 → 11/2 (+0.37pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +6.07pp
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Haydock, 03 Sep 2026 — 2nd • open 18/1 → final market price 10/1 (+3.69pp).

Opened 7/1Market avg 9/2Implied win: 18.9% · Loss: 81.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+6.07pp(+32.7%)
4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 5/110 Bet 9/2Betfred 9/2Coral 9/2Hollywood Bets 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/2Virgin Bet 9/2William Hill 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 9/2Paddy Power 9/2LiveScore Bet 9/2Bet Victor 4/1BetMGM 4/1BetTom 4/1BetWright 4/1Betano 4/1Boyle Sports 4/1Dragon Bet 4/1Midnite 4/1SportingIndex 4/1Spreadex 4/17Bet 7/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners7/1+9.35ppOpen → 10am7/2-3.28pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending+6.07ppNR adjusted
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+6.07ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer9.7% → 28.7%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 87 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-3.28pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 3 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Richard & Peter Fahey runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 25/87 (a 28.7% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.7% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 3 to Class 4, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Al Arraab has shortened from 7/1 to 9/2, which is support (+6.07pp).

Shortened by 9.35pp by 10am. Drifted by 3.28pp since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 8pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/10 (30%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Haydock · 03 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Haydock✓Trip (within ½f): 6f 16y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Soft×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 10/3 (4.37 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 12/33 (36.4%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 9/2 (5.60 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 25/87 (28.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksSigmaDraw 7
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -14.8% • -1.52pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.00pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 17/2 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 17/2 → 17/2 (+0.00pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -1.52pp
Opened 15/2Market avg 9/1Implied win: 10.2% · Loss: 89.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-1.52pp(-14.8%)
9/1 → 9/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 17/2 ↑ 9/1 → 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 8/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
10/1 11 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 10/1BetMGM 9/1BetTom 9/1Betfred 9/1Boyle Sports 9/1Coral 9/1Ladbrokes 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1SportingIndex 9/1Spreadex 9/1Star Sports 9/1Unibet 9/1Virgin Bet 9/1William Hill 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1Paddy Power 9/17Bet 17/2BetWright 17/2Dragon Bet 17/2Hollywood Bets 17/2Midnite 17/2LiveScore Bet 17/210 Bet 8/1Bet Victor 15/2Betano 15/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners15/2-0.65ppOpen → 10am8/1-0.87pp10am → now; SP pending9/1Current; SP pendingPending-1.52ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-0.87pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Sigma is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Drifted by 0.65pp by 10am. Drifted by 0.87pp more since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 8/1 (9.00 decimal).

Watch for the price to recover to this level.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 5/1 (5.96 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 13/34 (38.2%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.8%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Now was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: George Boughey
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 4/1 · 136% bigger today
Last run22 days ago · 2 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -24.2% • -2.05pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.14pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 12/1 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 12/1 → 12/1 (-0.14pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -1.91pp
Previous market evidence

Largest previous Open → final market drift: Newcastle (AW), 02 Oct 2026 — 4th • open 12/1 → final market price 66/1 (-6.20pp).

Opened 17/2Market avg 11/1Implied win: 8.5% · Loss: 91.5%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-1.91pp(-22.1%)
11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 11/1 → 11/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
12/1 13 decimal SportingIndex
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
SportingIndex 12/1Spreadex 12/110 Bet 11/17Bet 11/1Bet365 11/1BetMGM 11/1BetWright 11/1Betfred 11/1Boyle Sports 11/1Coral 11/1Dragon Bet 11/1Hollywood Bets 11/1Ladbrokes 11/1Midnite 11/1Quinn Bet 11/1Star Sports 11/1Unibet 11/1Virgin Bet 11/1William Hill 11/1Paddy Power 11/1BetTom 10/1Betfair Sportsbook 10/1LiveScore Bet 10/1Bet Victor 9/1Betano 9/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners17/2-2.05ppOpen → 10am11/1+0.14pp10am → now; SP pending11/1Current; SP pendingPending-1.91ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amHolding+0.14pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Hunstanton is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Drifted by 2.05pp by 10am. Shortened by 0.14pp since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 11/1 (12.00 decimal).

10am price recovered — watch whether it holds.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/2 (6.50 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 31/85 (36.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 18.1%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: 12pm was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Archie Watson
Jockey: Luke Morris
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -107.5% • -6.48pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.20pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/1 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 11/1 → 11/1 (-0.20pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -6.28pp
Opened 7/1Market avg 16/1Implied win: 6.0% · Loss: 94.0%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-6.28pp(-100.9%)
16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
16/1 17 decimal 10 Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
10 Bet 16/17Bet 16/1BetTom 16/1BetWright 16/1Boyle Sports 16/1Coral 16/1Dragon Bet 16/1Hollywood Bets 16/1Ladbrokes 16/1Midnite 16/1Quinn Bet 16/1SportingIndex 16/1Spreadex 16/1Star Sports 16/1Unibet 16/1Virgin Bet 16/1William Hill 16/1Betfair Sportsbook 16/1Paddy Power 16/1LiveScore Bet 16/1Bet Victor 14/1Bet365 14/1BetMGM 14/1Betano 14/1Betfred 14/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners7/1-4.61ppOpen → 10am12/1-1.67pp10am → now; SP pending16/1Current; SP pendingPending-6.28ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
MEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTEDMarket-6.28ppMarket weakness from the opening price.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.67pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. This horse did not have a confirmed 5pp+ drift by 10am, so the trainer’s early-drift record is not being applied. Today’s move: The Honey Thief has moved from 7/1 to 16/1, a developing drift (-6.28pp).

Drifted by 4.61pp by 10am. Drifted by 1.67pp more since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 12/1 (13.00 decimal).

Watch for the price to recover to this level.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 5/1 (5.78 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 12/45 (26.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.4%.

Current support is below target while the horse is drifting. Any earlier recorded hit is retained above so you can see that the move reversed. Check whether it recovers rather than treating the bigger odds as value on their own.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Now was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run37 days ago · 17 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine drift after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: -100.2% • -2.94pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.10pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 25/1 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 25/1 → 25/1 (-0.10pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: -2.85pp
Previous market evidence

Largest previous Open → final market drift: Pontefract, 17 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 5/1 → final market price 40/1 (-13.69pp).

Opened 16/1Market avg 33/1Implied win: 2.9% · Loss: 97.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-2.85pp(-93.8%)
33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 28/1 ↑ 33/1 → 33/1 → 33/1 ↓ 28/1 → 28/1 ↑ 33/1 ↓ 33/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
40/1 41 decimal SportingIndex
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
SportingIndex 40/1Spreadex 40/17Bet 33/110 Bet 33/1BetMGM 33/1BetTom 33/1BetWright 33/1Betfred 33/1Boyle Sports 33/1Coral 33/1Dragon Bet 33/1Hollywood Bets 33/1Ladbrokes 33/1Midnite 33/1Quinn Bet 33/1Star Sports 33/1Unibet 33/1Virgin Bet 33/1William Hill 33/1Betfair Sportsbook 33/1Paddy Power 33/1LiveScore Bet 33/1Bet Victor 28/1Bet365 28/1Betano 28/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners16/1-1.94ppOpen → 10am25/1-0.91pp10am → now; SP pending33/1Current; SP pendingPending-2.85ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-0.91pp since 10am, as of 19:54. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: World Star is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Drifted by 1.94pp by 10am. Drifted by 0.91pp more since 10am. As of 19:54; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 25/1 (26.00 decimal).

Watch for the price to recover to this level.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 17/2 (9.27 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 26/60 (43.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 14.4%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Now was biggest
Weakening late
Hot Moonstone
NON-RUNNERNR @ 09:28

Non-runner adjustment audit

NR recorded: 09:28:09 · recorded declaration time
Last recorded market average before NR: 50/1 (48.762) at 09:26:26
Implied probability: 2.05%
Snapshot 103 seconds before the recorded NR time.

The last captured price is shown, not an assumed exact withdrawal price. Adjustments below use each remaining horse’s measured pre/post-NR price change.

Remaining horseBefore NR / capturedPost-NR baselineEffect removed
Crystal Dark13/8 (2.672)
09:26:26
13/8 (2.630)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
+0.59pp
Flick of An Eye7/4 (2.736)
09:26:26
7/4 (2.750)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
-0.18pp
Al Arraab11/2 (6.660)
09:26:26
11/2 (6.500)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
+0.37pp
Sigma17/2 (9.500)
09:26:26
17/2 (9.500)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
+0.00pp
Hunstanton12/1 (12.760)
09:26:26
12/1 (13.000)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
-0.14pp
The Honey Thief11/1 (11.720)
09:26:26
11/1 (12.000)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
-0.20pp
World Star25/1 (25.360)
09:26:26
25/1 (26.000)
Baseline reference 09:28:09
-0.10pp

Effect removed = (100 ÷ post-NR baseline) − (100 ÷ pre-NR price). True move = raw Open → Now move − total signed NR effects.

The post-NR baseline can be the median of captured bookmaker prices within five minutes after the NR, or the first available timeline price. Its reference time is not necessarily an individual price capture. Fractional prices are rounded; decimal prices are included for checking. Simultaneous withdrawals share one measured event.

Race market overview as at 19:55
  • Supported1 of 7 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Al Arraab +6.07pp
  • Drifting2 of 7 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: The Honey Thief -6.28pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Flick of An Eye +4.69pp · biggest drift: Crystal Dark -7.79pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Flick of An Eye
15-minute snapshot 19:55 · no additional market query
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