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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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See what today’s price moves mean.

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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
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Market overview
Runners Today
4
Shown After Filters
2
Active Signals (15%+)
3
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Bill The Bull
16:24 Southwell (AW)
+2.84pp
True move after NR adjustment · 13/8 → 6/4
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Blake's Monarch
16:24 Southwell (AW)
-7.71pp
True move after NR adjustment · 5/4 → 7/4
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
16:24Southwell (AW) • Flat • 4f214y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
2 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

16:24Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Ivan Furtado
Jockey: Jack Callan
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run23 days ago · 1 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP11/81 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILESTRONGEST RECORDED DRIFT FOR THIS HORSE (100th percentile)
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Largest drift recorded across 5 previous runs.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Raw Open → Now price change: 21% • -7.71 probability points
Previous market evidence

Largest previous Open → final market drift: Chester, 30 May 2026 — 6th • open 6/1 → final market price 12/1 (-6.59pp).

Opened 5/4Market avg 7/4Implied win: 36.7% · Loss: 63.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-7.71pp(-21.0%)
13/8 ↑ 7/4 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 → 7/4
BEST FIXED ODDS
15/8 2.88 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 15/810 Bet 7/47Bet 7/4BetMGM 7/4BetWright 7/4Betfred 7/4Coral 7/4Dragon Bet 7/4Hollywood Bets 7/4Ladbrokes 7/4LiveScore Bet 7/4Quinn Bet 7/4SportingIndex 7/4Spreadex 7/4Star Sports 7/4Unibet 7/4Virgin Bet 7/4William Hill 7/4Bet Victor 13/8BetTom 13/8Betano 13/8Boyle Sports 13/8Midnite 13/8Betfair Sportsbook 13/8Paddy Power 13/8
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 4 runners5/4+0.00ppOpen → 10am5/4-7.71pp10am → now; SP pending7/4Current; SP pendingPending-7.71pp
THIS IS THE HORSE’S LARGEST RECORDED DRIFTMarket-7.71ppMarket weakness from the opening price.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLargest recorded driftLargest recorded drift across 5 previous runs. This flags unusual market weakness; it does not claim a finishing record.Since 10amWeakening-7.71pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

Across 5 previous runs, this is the horse’s largest recorded drift compared with its previous Open → final market price moves. This horse did not have a confirmed 5pp+ drift by 10am, so the trainer’s early-drift record is not being applied. Today’s move: Blake's Monarch has moved from 5/4 to 7/4, a developing drift (-7.71pp).

No net move by 10am. Drifted by 7.71pp since 10am. As of 16:22; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 01 Oct 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 4
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 5/4 (2.25 decimal).

Watch for the price to recover to this level.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around EVS (2.02 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 10/62 (16.1%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 8.1%.

Current support is below target while the horse is drifting. Any earlier recorded hit is retained above so you can see that the move reversed. Check whether it recovers rather than treating the bigger odds as value on their own.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Now was biggest
Weakening late
16:24Southwell (AW)
Trainer: Ollie Sangster
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬆ CLASS RISE
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run34 days ago · 20 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP5/12 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 5 previous runs recorded a larger drift: the horse finished 5th at Windsor on 01 Jun 2026 (-5.64pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Raw Open → Now price change: 25.3% • -4.49 probability points
Previous market evidence

Largest previous Open → final market drift: Windsor, 01 Jun 2026 — 5th • open 13/2 → final market price 12/1 (-5.64pp).

Opened 7/2Market avg 9/2Implied win: 17.7% · Loss: 82.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move-4.49pp(-25.3%)
9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 5/1Coral 5/1Ladbrokes 5/1LiveScore Bet 5/1SportingIndex 5/1Spreadex 5/1Virgin Bet 5/1William Hill 5/110 Bet 9/27Bet 9/2Bet Victor 9/2BetMGM 9/2BetTom 9/2BetWright 9/2Betano 9/2Betfred 9/2Boyle Sports 9/2Dragon Bet 9/2Hollywood Bets 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/2Paddy Power 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 4/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 4 runners7/2+0.00ppOpen → 10am7/2-4.49pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending-4.49pp
MEANINGFUL DRIFT DETECTEDMarket-4.49ppMarket weakness from the opening price.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.49pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 5 · ↑ Class rise
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

Just 1 of 5 previous runs showed a larger drift, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse against its previous Open → final market price moves. This horse did not have a confirmed 5pp+ drift by 10am, so the trainer’s early-drift record is not being applied. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Space Dreamer has moved from 7/2 to 9/2, a developing drift (-4.49pp).

No net move by 10am. Drifted by 4.49pp since 10am. As of 16:22; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Bath · 12 Sep 2026 · 1st · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Bath✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Recover the 10am price

Back to the 10am position · around 7/2 (4.50 decimal).

Watch for the price to recover to this level.

A return to this price would unwind the drift since 10am. A recovery alone does not prove the horse is a good bet.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/4 (3.67 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 26/60 (43.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 14.4%.

Current support is below target while the horse is drifting. Any earlier recorded hit is retained above so you can see that the move reversed. Check whether it recovers rather than treating the bigger odds as value on their own.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Now was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 22:05
  • Supported0 of 4 runners at +4pp or more
  • Drifting2 of 4 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Blake's Monarch -7.71pp
  • Last 15 minNo gain or drift recorded
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 22:04 · no additional market query
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