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Market-average order · Green ↑ shortening · Red ↓ drifting

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Cheltenham 🔒Doncaster 🔒Kelso 🔒Newbury 🔒Southwell (AW) ✓
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Market overview
Runners Today
101
Shown After Filters
27
Active Signals (15%+)
72
01 · Strongest support
Racing silks
Mehmar
65
20:30 Southwell (AW)
+17.98pp
True move after NR adjustment · 11/2 → 13/8
02 · Repeat evidence
No repeat signal active
No upcoming runner currently matches a previous successful market pattern.
03 · Weak favourite
Racing silks
Night Mile
46
18:00 Southwell (AW)
-8.56pp
True move after NR adjustment · 10/3 → 6/1
Runner
Bookmaker move
Evidence
What to do next
16:24Southwell (AW) • Flat • 4f214y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
2 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

16:24Southwell (AW)
Racing silksBill The BullDraw 1
Trainer: Adam Kirby
Jockey: Robert Havlin
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run23 days ago · 1 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP9/22 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
78th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE78th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 9 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Raw Open → Now price change: 7% • +2.84 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Bath, 05 Jun 2026 — 1st • open 11/8 → final market price 4/6 (+17.86pp).

Opened 13/8Market avg 6/4Implied win: 40.9% · Loss: 59.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.84pp(+7.0%)
11/8 ↑ 6/4 ↓ 11/8 → 11/8 → 11/8 ↓ 5/4 → 5/4 ↑ 11/8 → 11/8 ↑ 6/4
BEST FIXED ODDS
13/8 2.63 decimal LiveScore Bet
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
LiveScore Bet 13/8Virgin Bet 13/810 Bet 6/4Betfred 6/4Coral 6/4Hollywood Bets 6/4Ladbrokes 6/4Midnite 6/4Quinn Bet 6/4Star Sports 6/4Unibet 6/4William Hill 6/4Betfair Sportsbook 6/4Paddy Power 6/47Bet 11/8Bet Victor 11/8BetTom 11/8BetWright 11/8Betano 11/8Boyle Sports 11/8Dragon Bet 11/8SportingIndex 11/8Spreadex 11/8Bet365 5/4BetMGM 5/4
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 4 runners13/8+0.15ppOpen → 10am13/8+2.70pp10am → now; SP pending6/4Current; SP pendingPending+2.84pp
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+2.70pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 9 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Bill The Bull is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 0.15pp by 10am. Shortened by 2.70pp more since 10am. As of 16:22; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 01 Oct 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 4
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Horse support level

Support of +0.74pp · around 13/8 (2.58 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

2/7 finished 1st or 2nd with this much support or more (29%).

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/8 (2.32 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 8/28 (28.6%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.3%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
16:24Southwell (AW)
Racing silksUndercover AffairDraw 3
Trainer: David Evans
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run23 days ago · 1 Oct 2026
Distance changeDown 1.1f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP7/42 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE38th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 13 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
2/3 placed when backed like this (67%).
When backed like this: 2/3 WON
Raw Open → Now price change: 16.3% • +2.43 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Nottingham, 02 Jul 2026 — 3rd • open 5/1 → final market price 7/4 (+19.70pp).

All 3 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Windsor, 13 Jul 2026 — 1st • open 5/2 → final 15/8
  • Goodwood, 07 Jun 2026 — 1st • open 7/4 → final 5/4
  • Bath, 27 Apr 2026 — 4th • open 12/1 → final 10/1
Opened 7/1Market avg 11/2Implied win: 14.9% · Loss: 85.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.43pp(+16.2%)
11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 11/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 13/27Bet 6/1BetWright 6/1Coral 6/1Dragon Bet 6/1Hollywood Bets 6/1Ladbrokes 6/1LiveScore Bet 6/1SportingIndex 6/1Spreadex 6/1Virgin Bet 6/110 Bet 11/2BetMGM 11/2BetTom 11/2Betfred 11/2Boyle Sports 11/2Midnite 11/2Quinn Bet 11/2Star Sports 11/2Unibet 11/2William Hill 11/2Betfair Sportsbook 11/2Paddy Power 11/2Bet Victor 5/1Betano 5/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 4 runners7/1+5.68ppOpen → 10am9/2-3.26pp10am → now; SP pending11/2Current; SP pendingPending+2.43pp
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-3.26pp since 10am, as of 16:22. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 13 previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 2 of 3 runs. Today’s move: Undercover Affair is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 5.68pp by 10am. Drifted by 3.26pp since 10am. As of 16:22; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 4pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 1/17 (5.9%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Wolverhampton (AW) · 18 May 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Wolverhampton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 4
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 9/2 (5.71 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 7/44 (15.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported0 of 4 runners at +4pp or more
  • Drifting2 of 4 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Blake's Monarch -7.71pp
  • Last 15 minNo gain or drift recorded
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
17:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 4f214y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
5 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

17:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksRhythm N HoovesDraw 4
Trainer: Robert Cowell
Jockey: Barry McHugh
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
10AM EMERGING PATTERNFrozen 10am Emerging market pattern. This is an early pattern, not yet a fully established repeat-winner signal.

Source: stored dcn_signal_flags classification for today. This signal is frozen at 10am; the live price can move afterwards without changing the 10am classification.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 9/1 · 55% shorter today
Last run21 days ago · 3 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP7/21 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +19.1% • +4.28pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -1.39pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 4/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 7/2 → 4/1 (-1.39pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +5.67pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
92th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE92nd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 12 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Windsor on 22 Jun 2026 (+8.33pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
1/5 placed when backed like this (20%).
When backed like this: 1/5 WON
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Windsor, 22 Jun 2026 — 3rd • open 5/1 → final market price 3/1 (+8.33pp).

All 5 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Ascot, 05 Sep 2026 — 8th • open 15/2 → final 11/2
  • Newbury, 15 Aug 2026 — 1st • open 6/1 → final 9/2
  • Windsor, 18 May 2026 — 3rd • open 7/1 → final 11/2
  • Goodwood, 01 May 2026 — 4th • open 8/1 → final 11/2
  • Southwell (AW), 21 Mar 2026 — 4th • open 10/1 → final 8/1
Opened 9/2Market avg 7/2Implied win: 22.5% · Loss: 77.5%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+5.67pp(+23.8%)
3/1 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 10/3 → 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 3/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
4/1 5 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 4/1Betfred 4/1SportingIndex 4/1Spreadex 4/17Bet 7/2Coral 7/2Dragon Bet 7/2Hollywood Bets 7/2Ladbrokes 7/2Midnite 7/2Quinn Bet 7/2Star Sports 7/2Betfair Sportsbook 7/2Paddy Power 7/2BetMGM 10/3BetTom 10/3BetWright 10/3LiveScore Bet 10/3Unibet 10/3Virgin Bet 10/3William Hill 10/310 Bet 3/1Bet Victor 3/1Betano 3/1Boyle Sports 3/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners9/2+9.88ppOpen → 10am11/4-4.20pp10am → now; SP pending7/2Current; SP pendingPending+5.67ppNR adjusted
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+5.67ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer11.4% → 28.9%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 38 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyMissed top 2: 4/5Comparable support: 1 first/second finishes in 5 completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.20pp since 10am, as of 16:58. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 2 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

Robert Cowell runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 11/38 (a 28.9% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 11.4% strike rate. Just 1 of 12 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse against its previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 1 of 5 runs. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 2 to Class 4, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Rhythm N Hooves has shortened from 9/2 to 7/2, which is support (+5.67pp).

Shortened by 9.88pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.20pp since 10am. As of 16:58; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 8pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/5 (60%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ascot · 03 Oct 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Ascot✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good To Firm×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 2
ACT NOW — DO NOT WAIT FOR ANOTHER 2PP

41.7% of Robert Cowell runners backed by at least 8pp by 10am continued to shorten from 10am to SP (5/12). Today’s live move of +5.67pp is supported by the horse or trainer evidence too. That continuation record is the reason to act now: waiting for another 2pp risks losing the available price.

WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 11/4 (3.73 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 3/12 (25%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 11.4%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 7/2 (4.59 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 11/38 (28.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 11.4%.

Risk of losing the price: 5/12 (41.7%) trainer runners backed by 8pp+ by 10am shortened further into SP.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
17:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksBona FortunaDraw 12
Trainer: Michael Appleby
Jockey: Luke Morris
🟢 Needs Support (38%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬆ CLASS RISE
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run26 days ago · 28 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP11/81 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +0.3% • +0.06pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.46pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 5/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 5/1 → 5/1 (-0.46pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.52pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 3 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 28 Sep 2026 — 1st • open 3/1 → final market price 7/4 (+11.36pp).

Opened 7/2Market avg 7/2Implied win: 22.3% · Loss: 77.7%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.52pp(+2.3%)
10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 7/2 → 7/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
4/1 5 decimal Betfred
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Betfred 4/1Star Sports 4/110 Bet 7/27Bet 7/2Bet365 7/2BetTom 7/2Coral 7/2Hollywood Bets 7/2Ladbrokes 7/2LiveScore Bet 7/2Midnite 7/2Quinn Bet 7/2SportingIndex 7/2Spreadex 7/2Unibet 7/2Virgin Bet 7/2William Hill 7/2Paddy Power 7/2Bet Victor 10/3BetWright 10/3Betano 10/3Boyle Sports 10/3Dragon Bet 10/3Betfair Sportsbook 10/3BetMGM 10/3
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners7/2-5.10ppOpen → 10am5/1+5.62pp10am → now; SP pending7/2Current; SP pendingPending+0.52ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+5.62pp since 10am, as of 16:58. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 5 · ↑ Class rise
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

Reading cached evidence…

MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

Reading cached evidence…

TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

Reading cached evidence…

No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 3 previous Open → final market price moves. It is also stepping up from Class 5 to Class 4, which adds another test today. Today’s move: Bona Fortuna is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Drifted by 5.10pp by 10am. Shortened by 5.62pp since 10am. As of 16:58; SP pending. If it keeps drifting into SP: this trainer’s runners with 5pp+ drift by 10am that kept drifting from 10am to SP won 2/23 (8.7%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Wolverhampton (AW) · 28 Sep 2026 · 1st · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Wolverhampton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 5
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Horse support level

Support of +10.39pp · around 2/1 (3.11 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

2/2 finished 1st or 2nd with this much support or more (100%).

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/4 (3.74 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 16/76 (21.1%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.2%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: 10am was biggest
Weakening late
17:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksNight StormDraw 10
Trainer: James Tate
Jockey: Rob Hornby
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run102 days ago · 14 Jul 2026
Distance changeDown 1.1f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +0.3% • +0.05pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.49pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/2 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 11/2 → 11/2 (-0.49pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.54pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE0th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 3 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 14 Jul 2026 — 6th • open 7/2 → final market price 6/4 (+17.78pp).

Opened 11/2Market avg 11/2Implied win: 15.4% · Loss: 84.6%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.54pp(+3.4%)
5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 → 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 → 11/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
6/1 7 decimal Betfred
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Betfred 6/1Hollywood Bets 6/1Star Sports 6/1Unibet 6/1William Hill 6/110 Bet 11/27Bet 11/2Bet365 11/2BetMGM 11/2BetTom 11/2BetWright 11/2Coral 11/2Dragon Bet 11/2Ladbrokes 11/2LiveScore Bet 11/2Midnite 11/2Quinn Bet 11/2SportingIndex 11/2Spreadex 11/2Virgin Bet 11/2Bet Victor 5/1Betano 5/1Boyle Sports 5/1Paddy Power 5/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners11/2+3.29ppOpen → 10am9/2-2.75pp10am → now; SP pending11/2Current; SP pendingPending+0.54ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.75pp since 10am, as of 16:58. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 3 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Night Storm is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 3.29pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.75pp since 10am. As of 16:58; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 4/1 (5.03 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 19/56 (33.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 14.5%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
17:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksShes Got A BrotherDraw 11
Trainer: Michael & David Easterby
Jockey: Billy Garritty
🟢 Needs Support (23%)This horse only delivers (1st/2nd) when backed in the market. Historical wins/2nds all showed significant market support. If support is missing → performance risk increases.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD2/2 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 6/1 · Today close to the course average
Last run24 days ago · 30 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP6/12 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +29.1% • +4.31pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.38pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 8/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 15/2 → 8/1 (-0.38pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +4.69pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE89th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 9 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 1st at Southwell (AW) on 28 Apr 2026 (+27.78pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
1/2 placed when backed like this (50%).
When backed like this: 1/2 WON
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Southwell (AW), 28 Apr 2026 — 1st • open 7/2 → final market price EVS (+27.78pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • York, 19 Aug 2026 — 10th • open 14/1 → final 17/2
  • Southwell (AW), 28 Apr 2026 — 1st • open 7/2 → final EVS
Opened 17/2Market avg 11/2Implied win: 14.8% · Loss: 85.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+4.69pp(+30.8%)
5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 11/2 → 11/2 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 11/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365
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Bet365 13/27Bet 6/1BetWright 6/1Betfred 6/1Coral 6/1Ladbrokes 6/1LiveScore Bet 6/1Quinn Bet 6/1SportingIndex 6/1Spreadex 6/1Star Sports 6/1Unibet 6/1Virgin Bet 6/1William Hill 6/110 Bet 11/2BetMGM 11/2BetTom 11/2Dragon Bet 11/2Hollywood Bets 11/2Midnite 11/2Betfair Sportsbook 11/2Paddy Power 11/2Bet Victor 5/1Betano 5/1Boyle Sports 5/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners17/2+4.14ppOpen → 10am6/1+0.55pp10am → now; SP pending11/2Current; SP pendingPending+4.69ppNR adjusted
HORSE HISTORY SUPPORTS TODAY’S MARKET MOVEMarket+4.69ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer9.3% → 12.7%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 79 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse history1/2 top 2Comparable support: 1 first/second finishes in 2 completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+0.55pp since 10am, as of 16:58. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Just 1 of 9 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse against its previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 1 of 2 runs. The trainer evidence is important here: At 5pp+: Open→SP 10/79 won (12.7%), compared with the yard’s normal 9.3% strike rate. Today’s move: Shes Got A Brother has shortened from 17/2 to 11/2, which is support (+4.69pp).

Shortened by 4.14pp by 10am. Shortened by 0.55pp more since 10am. As of 16:58; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 4pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 7/37 (18.9%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 09 Apr 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 4
ACT NOW — DO NOT WAIT FOR ANOTHER 2PP

48.1% of Michael & David Easterby runners backed by at least 4pp by 10am continued to shorten from 10am to SP (37/77). Today’s live move of +4.69pp is supported by the horse or trainer evidence too. That continuation record is the reason to act now: waiting for another 2pp risks losing the available price.

WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 4/1 (4.96 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 4/26 (15.4%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.3%.

Risk of losing the price: 37/77 (48.1%) trainer runners backed by 4pp+ by 10am shortened further into SP.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
17:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksAlmaty StarDraw 9
Trainer: Robert Cowell
Jockey: Robert Havlin
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 15/2 · 16% bigger today
Last run18 days ago · 6 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP8/11 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +1.8% • +0.18pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.03pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 10/1 @ 08:55
NR @ 08:55: 10/1 → 10/1 (-0.03pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.22pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE80th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 10 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 09 Mar 2026 — 2nd • open 4/1 → final market price 11/4 (+6.67pp).

Opened 9/1Market avg 9/1Implied win: 10.2% · Loss: 89.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.22pp(+2.1%)
8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 15/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
10/1 11 decimal Bet365
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Bet365 10/1Star Sports 10/17Bet 9/1BetWright 9/1Betfred 9/1Coral 9/1Dragon Bet 9/1Hollywood Bets 9/1Ladbrokes 9/1LiveScore Bet 9/1Midnite 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1SportingIndex 9/1Spreadex 9/1Unibet 9/1Virgin Bet 9/1William Hill 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1Paddy Power 9/1BetTom 17/2Bet Victor 8/1Betano 8/1Boyle Sports 8/110 Bet 15/2BetMGM 15/2
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today4f 214y · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners9/1+3.37ppOpen → 10am13/2-3.15pp10am → now; SP pending9/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.22ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-3.15pp since 10am, as of 16:58. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 4 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 10 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Almaty Star is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 3.37pp by 10am. Drifted by 3.15pp since 10am. As of 16:58; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Wolverhampton (AW) · 09 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Wolverhampton (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 4f 214y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 4
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/2 (6.68 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 11/38 (28.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 11.4%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported2 of 12 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Rhythm N Hooves +5.67pp
  • Drifting2 of 12 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Moulin Booj -6.38pp
  • Last 15 minNo gain or drift recorded
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
17:30Southwell (AW) • Flat • 1m4f14y • Class 6 • Going: Standard
3 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

17:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksHavachocDraw 5
Trainer: Patrick Morris
Jockey: Paddy Bradley
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/3 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 11/2 · 20% bigger today
Last run29 days ago · 25 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP7/23 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
73th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE73rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 15 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
1/2 placed when backed like this (50%).
When backed like this: 1/2 WON
Raw Open → Now price change: 18.1% • +2.33 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 08 May 2026 — 2nd • open 11/4 → final market price 6/5 (+18.79pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Newcastle (AW), 25 Sep 2026 — 6th • open 7/1 → final 5/1
  • Wolverhampton (AW), 16 Jan 2026 — 1st • open 8/1 → final 11/2
Opened 17/2Market avg 7/1Implied win: 12.9% · Loss: 87.1%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.33pp(+18.1%)
13/2 → 13/2 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 13/2 → 13/2 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 6/1 ↑ 7/1 ↓ 13/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
15/2 8.5 decimal SportingIndex
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SportingIndex 15/2Spreadex 15/27Bet 7/1Bet365 7/1BetWright 7/1Coral 7/1Dragon Bet 7/1Hollywood Bets 7/1Ladbrokes 7/1LiveScore Bet 7/1Midnite 7/1Star Sports 7/1Virgin Bet 7/1William Hill 7/110 Bet 13/2BetMGM 13/2BetTom 13/2Betfred 13/2Boyle Sports 13/2Quinn Bet 13/2Unibet 13/2Betfair Sportsbook 13/2Paddy Power 13/2Bet Victor 6/1Betano 6/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 4f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners17/2+2.81ppOpen → 10am13/2-0.48pp10am → now; SP pending7/1Current; SP pendingPending+2.33pp
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amHolding-0.48pp since 10am, as of 17:28. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 15 previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 1 of 2 runs. Today’s move: Havachoc is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 2.81pp by 10am. Drifted by 0.48pp since 10am. As of 17:28; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 05 Feb 2026 · 1st · 4/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 4f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/2 (6.44 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 4/29 (13.8%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.4%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
17:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksAlkaiosDraw 14
Trainer: Steph Hollinshead
Jockey: Dougie Costello
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD0/3 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 100/1 · 92% shorter today
Last run19 days ago · 5 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
83th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE83rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 6 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Raw Open → Now price change: 37.1% • +3.46 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 05 Oct 2026 — 5th • open 50/1 → final market price 16/1 (+3.92pp).

Opened 16/1Market avg 10/1Implied win: 9.3% · Loss: 90.7%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+3.46pp(+37.1%)
8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 17/2 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 17/2 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 9/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
12/1 13 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 12/1SportingIndex 12/1Spreadex 12/17Bet 11/1Dragon Bet 11/1BetMGM 10/1BetWright 10/1Coral 10/1Hollywood Bets 10/1Ladbrokes 10/1Midnite 10/1Star Sports 10/1William Hill 10/110 Bet 9/1BetTom 9/1Betfred 9/1LiveScore Bet 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1Unibet 9/1Virgin Bet 9/1Bet Victor 17/2Betano 17/2Paddy Power 17/2Boyle Sports 8/1Betfair Sportsbook 8/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 4f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners16/1+0.78ppOpen → 10am14/1+2.68pp10am → now; SP pending10/1Current; SP pendingPending+3.46pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+2.68pp since 10am, as of 17:28. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 6 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Alkaios is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 0.78pp by 10am. Shortened by 2.68pp more since 10am. As of 17:28; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 8/1 (9.19 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 4/18 (22.2%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 7.1%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
17:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksLednikovDraw 4
Trainer: Ivan Furtado
Jockey: Elle-May Croot(5)
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/7 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 14/1 · 24% shorter today
Last run26 days ago · 28 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 1.9f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP18/11 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE64th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 14 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Raw Open → Now price change: 20.8% • +1.75 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Southwell (AW), 31 Aug 2026 — 5th • open 13/2 → final market price 7/2 (+8.71pp).

Opened 14/1Market avg 11/1Implied win: 8.4% · Loss: 91.6%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.75pp(+20.8%)
9/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 11/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 9/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 10/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
14/1 15 decimal SportingIndex
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
SportingIndex 14/1Spreadex 14/17Bet 12/1Bet365 12/1BetWright 12/1Dragon Bet 12/1Midnite 12/1BetMGM 11/1Coral 11/1Hollywood Bets 11/1Ladbrokes 11/1LiveScore Bet 11/1Star Sports 11/1Virgin Bet 11/1William Hill 11/110 Bet 10/1BetTom 10/1Betfred 10/1Quinn Bet 10/1Unibet 10/1Paddy Power 10/1Bet Victor 9/1Betano 9/1Boyle Sports 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 4f 14y · Class 6 · Standard · 14 runners14/1+0.00ppOpen → 10am14/1+1.75pp10am → now; SP pending11/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.75pp
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+1.75pp since 10am, as of 17:28. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 14 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Lednikov is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

No net move by 10am. Shortened by 1.75pp since 10am. As of 17:28; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 13 Mar 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 4f 14y · previous 1m 6f 21y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 15/2 (8.57 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 10/62 (16.1%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 8.1%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported0 of 14 runners at +4pp or more
  • Drifting1 of 14 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Spirit of Nature -7.82pp
  • Last 15 minNo gain or drift recorded
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
18:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 1m13y • Class 3 • Going: Standard
2 runners
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18:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksNational AnthemDraw 9
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Robert Havlin
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 27.6% • +14.50 probability points
Opened 13/8Market avg 10/11Implied win: 52.5% · Loss: 47.5%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+14.50pp(+27.6%)
EVS ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 ↑ 10/11 → 10/11 ↓ 4/5 ↑ 10/11 → 10/11 → 10/11 ↓ 5/6
BEST FIXED ODDS
11/10 2.1 decimal Hollywood Bets
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Hollywood Bets 11/10Coral EVSLadbrokes EVSLiveScore Bet EVSVirgin Bet EVS7Bet 10/11Bet Victor 10/11Bet365 10/11BetWright 10/11Betano 10/11Dragon Bet 10/11SportingIndex 10/11Spreadex 10/11Star Sports 10/11Unibet 10/11William Hill 10/1110 Bet 5/6Betfred 5/6Boyle Sports 5/6Midnite 5/6Quinn Bet 5/6Paddy Power 5/6BetMGM 4/5Betfair Sportsbook 4/5
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners13/8+6.42ppOpen → 10am5/4+8.08pp10am → now; SP pending10/11Current; SP pendingPending+14.50pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+14.50ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer23.9% → 45.8%Open → SP · backed 10pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 48 runners, Open → SP · backed 10pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+8.08pp since 10am, as of 17:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: class not recorded
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John & Thady Gosden runners in the matching 10pp+ band have won 22/48 (a 45.8% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 23.9% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: National Anthem has shortened from 13/8 to 10/11, which is strong support (+14.50pp).

Shortened by 6.42pp by 10am. Shortened by 8.08pp more since 10am. As of 17:57; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 11/26 (42.3%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +15.00pp · around 10/11 (1.89 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 13/27 (48.1%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 23.9%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/8 (2.32 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 37/107 (34.6%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 23.9%.

Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 11/10 (2.08 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 22/48 (45.8%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 23.9%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
18:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksRing of MusicDraw 7
Trainer: Hugo Palmer
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run23 days ago · 1 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 7.9% • +1.98 probability points
Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final market support in the recorded sample.

Opened 10/3Market avg 3/1Implied win: 25.1% · Loss: 74.9%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.98pp(+7.9%)
3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1 → 3/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
10/3 4.2 decimal BetMGM
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BetMGM 10/310 Bet 3/17Bet 3/1Bet Victor 3/1Bet365 3/1BetTom 3/1BetWright 3/1Betano 3/1Betfred 3/1Boyle Sports 3/1Coral 3/1Dragon Bet 3/1Hollywood Bets 3/1Ladbrokes 3/1LiveScore Bet 3/1Midnite 3/1Quinn Bet 3/1SportingIndex 3/1Spreadex 3/1Star Sports 3/1Unibet 3/1Virgin Bet 3/1William Hill 3/1Betfair Sportsbook 11/4Paddy Power 11/4
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners10/3+6.32ppOpen → 10am5/2-4.34pp10am → now; SP pending3/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.98pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.34pp since 10am, as of 17:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: Class 3 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Ring of Music is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 6.32pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.34pp since 10am. As of 17:57; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 5/22 (22.7%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 5/2 (3.56 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 26/99 (26.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported1 of 10 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: National Anthem +14.50pp
  • Drifting3 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Night Mile -8.56pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: National Anthem +6.90pp · biggest drift: Night Mile -3.17pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · National Anthem
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
18:30Southwell (AW) • Flat • 1m13y • Class 3 • Going: Standard
3 runners
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18:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksGeometryDraw 10
Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
10AM EMERGING PATTERNFrozen 10am Emerging market pattern. This is an early pattern, not yet a fully established repeat-winner signal.

Source: stored dcn_signal_flags classification for today. This signal is frozen at 10am; the live price can move afterwards without changing the 10am classification.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 14/1 · 88% shorter today
Last run18 days ago · 6 Oct 2026
Distance changeUp 1f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 11.2% • +6.03 probability points
Built 10:52 → 11:13
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newcastle (AW), 05 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 9/4 → final market price 5/4 (+13.19pp).

Opened 11/10Market avg 5/6Implied win: 53.6% · Loss: 46.4%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+6.03pp(+11.2%)
5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 → 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 5/6 ↑ 10/11 ↓ 4/5
BEST FIXED ODDS
10/11 1.91 decimal 7Bet
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7Bet 10/11Bet365 10/11BetWright 10/11Betfred 10/11Coral 10/11Dragon Bet 10/11Hollywood Bets 10/11Ladbrokes 10/11SportingIndex 10/11Spreadex 10/11William Hill 10/11Bet Victor 5/6BetMGM 5/6BetTom 5/6Betano 5/6Boyle Sports 5/6LiveScore Bet 5/6Midnite 5/6Quinn Bet 5/6Star Sports 5/6Unibet 5/6Virgin Bet 5/6Betfair Sportsbook 5/6Paddy Power 5/610 Bet 4/5
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners11/10+10.18ppOpen → 10am8/11-4.16pp10am → now; SP pending5/6Current; SP pendingPending+6.03pp
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+6.03ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer21.5% → 38.5%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 96 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.16pp since 10am, as of 18:27. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: Class 3 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Roger Varian runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 37/96 (a 38.5% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 21.5% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Geometry has shortened from 11/10 to 5/6, which is support (+6.03pp).

Shortened by 10.18pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.16pp since 10am. As of 18:27; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 10pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 10/15 (66.7%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 06 Oct 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 13y · previous 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 3
ACT NOW — DO NOT WAIT FOR ANOTHER 2PP

41.7% of Roger Varian runners backed by at least 10pp by 10am continued to shorten from 10am to SP (15/36). Today’s live move of +6.03pp is supported by the horse or trainer evidence too. That continuation record is the reason to act now: waiting for another 2pp risks losing the available price.

WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 8/11 (1.74 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 22/55 (40%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 21.5%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 10/11 (1.90 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 37/96 (38.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 21.5%.

Risk of losing the price: 15/36 (41.7%) trainer runners backed by 10pp+ by 10am shortened further into SP.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
18:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksChampagne PoetryDraw 6
Trainer: George Boughey
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 14.8% • +2.67 probability points
Opened 11/2Market avg 9/2Implied win: 18.1% · Loss: 81.9%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.67pp(+14.8%)
9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
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Bet365 5/1Betfred 5/1SportingIndex 5/1Spreadex 5/110 Bet 9/27Bet 9/2Bet Victor 9/2BetMGM 9/2BetTom 9/2BetWright 9/2Betano 9/2Boyle Sports 9/2Coral 9/2Dragon Bet 9/2Hollywood Bets 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2LiveScore Bet 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/2Virgin Bet 9/2William Hill 9/2Paddy Power 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 7/2
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners11/2+7.71ppOpen → 10am10/3-5.04pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending+2.67pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-5.04pp since 10am, as of 18:27. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Champagne Poetry is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 7.71pp by 10am. Drifted by 5.04pp since 10am. As of 18:27; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 14/25 (56%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 4/1 (4.91 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 31/85 (36.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 18.1%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
18:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksSaxon LawDraw 3
Trainer: David O'Meara
Jockey: Mark Winn
PRO RACECARD ↗
Last runNot recorded
Distance changeNot recorded
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
Raw Open → Now price change: 11.8% • +0.78 probability points
Opened 16/1Market avg 14/1Implied win: 6.7% · Loss: 93.3%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.78pp(+11.8%)
14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 ↓ 12/1 ↑ 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1 → 14/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
16/1 17 decimal LiveScore Bet
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LiveScore Bet 16/1Virgin Bet 16/110 Bet 14/17Bet 14/1Bet Victor 14/1Bet365 14/1BetTom 14/1BetWright 14/1Betano 14/1Betfred 14/1Boyle Sports 14/1Coral 14/1Dragon Bet 14/1Hollywood Bets 14/1Ladbrokes 14/1Midnite 14/1Quinn Bet 14/1SportingIndex 14/1Spreadex 14/1Star Sports 14/1William Hill 14/1Betfair Sportsbook 14/1Paddy Power 14/1BetMGM 12/1Unibet 12/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners16/1+3.64ppOpen → 10am9/1-2.86pp10am → now; SP pending14/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.78pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.86pp since 10am, as of 18:27. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 3 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. Today’s move: Saxon Law is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 3.64pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.86pp since 10am. As of 18:27; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 8/1 (9.19 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 26/120 (21.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 10.8%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported1 of 10 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Geometry +6.03pp
  • Drifting3 of 10 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Golden Eagle -6.72pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Jebayli +5.56pp · biggest drift: Champagne Poetry -9.09pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Jebayli
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
19:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 1m13y • Class 6 • Going: Standard
4 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

19:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksLove You MoreDraw 7
Trainer: Joseph Parr
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD0/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 9/2 · 20% shorter today
Last run25 days ago · 29 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 1.4f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP10/31 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +63.5% • +14.49pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +2.60pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/2 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 11/2 → 9/2 (+2.60pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +11.89pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
88th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE88th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 8 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 7th at Windsor on 29 Jun 2026 (+13.89pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
0/3 placed when backed like this (0%).
When backed like this: 0/3 WON
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Windsor, 29 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 11/1 → final market price 7/2 (+13.89pp).

All 3 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Southwell (AW), 16 Aug 2026 — 6th • open 8/1 → final 9/2
  • Windsor, 29 Jun 2026 — 7th • open 11/1 → final 7/2
  • Brighton, 09 Jun 2026 — 10th • open 14/1 → final 11/2
Opened 11/1Market avg 10/3Implied win: 22.8% · Loss: 77.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+11.89pp(+58.8%)
3/1 ↑ 10/3 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 10/3 → 10/3 ↑ 4/1 ↓ 3/1 ↑ 7/2 ↓ 3/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
4/1 5 decimal Bet365
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Bet365 4/1Coral 4/1Ladbrokes 4/17Bet 7/2BetWright 7/2Dragon Bet 7/2Midnite 7/2SportingIndex 7/2Spreadex 7/2Star Sports 7/2Unibet 7/2William Hill 7/2BetMGM 10/3BetTom 10/3Betfred 10/3Hollywood Bets 10/3LiveScore Bet 10/3Quinn Bet 10/3Virgin Bet 10/310 Bet 3/1Bet Victor 3/1Betano 3/1Boyle Sports 3/1Paddy Power 3/1Betfair Sportsbook 11/4
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners11/1+14.07ppOpen → 10am3/1-2.18pp10am → now; SP pending10/3Current; SP pendingPending+11.89ppNR adjusted
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+11.89ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer6.8% → 20%Open → SP · backed 10pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 10 runners, Open → SP · backed 10pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyMissed top 2: 3/3Comparable support: 0 first/second finishes in 3 completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.18pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Joseph Parr runners in the matching 10pp+ band have won 2/10 (a 20% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 6.8% strike rate. Just 1 of 8 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse against its previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 3 runs. Today’s move: Love You More has shortened from 11/1 to 10/3, which is strong support (+11.89pp).

Shortened by 14.07pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.18pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Lingfield (AW) · 13 Jul 2026 · 1st · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Lingfield (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 13y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +15.00pp · around 11/4 (3.86 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 2/5 (40%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.8%. Small sample.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/2 (6.28 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 4/21 (19%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.8%.

Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 4/1 (4.78 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 2/10 (20%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 6.8%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksKnightmareDraw 10
Trainer: David Evans
Jockey: Jack Callan
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run25 days ago · 29 Sep 2026
Distance changeDown 0.6f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP9/41 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +13.0% • +1.25pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.42pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 14/1 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 14/1 → 14/1 (+0.42pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.83pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE60th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 15 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Wolverhampton (AW), 02 Jun 2026 — 2nd • open 5/1 → final market price 5/2 (+11.90pp).

Opened 11/1Market avg 9/1Implied win: 9.6% · Loss: 90.4%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.83pp(+9.0%)
8/1 ↑ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 8/1 ↑ 10/1 ↓ 9/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
11/1 12 decimal Bet365
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Bet365 11/1SportingIndex 11/1Spreadex 11/17Bet 10/1BetWright 10/1Coral 10/1Dragon Bet 10/1Ladbrokes 10/1LiveScore Bet 10/1Star Sports 10/1Virgin Bet 10/1William Hill 10/110 Bet 9/1BetTom 9/1Betfred 9/1Hollywood Bets 9/1Midnite 9/1Quinn Bet 9/1Unibet 9/1Betfair Sportsbook 9/1Paddy Power 9/1Bet Victor 8/1BetMGM 8/1Betano 8/1Boyle Sports 8/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners11/1-0.42ppOpen → 10am11/1+1.25pp10am → now; SP pending9/1Current; SP pendingPending+0.83ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+1.25pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 15 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Knightmare is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Drifted by 0.42pp by 10am. Shortened by 1.25pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Ffos Las · 28 Jul 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Ffos Las✓Trip (within ½f): 1m 13y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Good✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 13/2 (7.27 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 7/44 (15.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksDumfriesDraw 6
Trainer: Ruth Carr
Jockey: William Pyle
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD0/2 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 12/1 · 13% shorter today
Last run14 days ago · 10 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +28.2% • +2.31pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.04pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 14/1 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 14/1 → 14/1 (+0.04pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +2.28pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
83th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE83rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 6 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Beverley, 28 Jul 2026 — 5th • open 12/1 → final market price 17/2 (+2.83pp).

Opened 16/1Market avg 11/1Implied win: 8.2% · Loss: 91.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+2.28pp(+27.9%)
10/1 ↑ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 10/1 ↑ 12/1 ↓ 11/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
12/1 13 decimal 7Bet
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7Bet 12/1Bet365 12/1BetWright 12/1Coral 12/1Dragon Bet 12/1Ladbrokes 12/1SportingIndex 12/1Spreadex 12/1Star Sports 12/110 Bet 11/1BetTom 11/1Betfred 11/1Hollywood Bets 11/1LiveScore Bet 11/1Midnite 11/1Quinn Bet 11/1Unibet 11/1Virgin Bet 11/1William Hill 11/1Betfair Sportsbook 11/1Paddy Power 11/1Bet Victor 10/1BetMGM 10/1Betano 10/1Boyle Sports 10/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners16/1+5.19ppOpen → 10am8/1-2.91pp10am → now; SP pending11/1Current; SP pendingPending+2.28ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.91pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 6 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Dumfries is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 5.19pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.91pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 4pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 9/29 (31%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Wolverhampton (AW) · 29 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 2/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Wolverhampton (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 1m 13y · previous 1m 142y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 8/1 (9.16 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 18/86 (20.9%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.9%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksBlue SamunaDraw 11
Trainer: James Owen
Jockey: Robert Havlin
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run17 days ago · 7 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +20.2% • +1.20pp
Measured NR price effect removed: -0.14pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 18/1 @ 08:52
NR @ 08:52: 18/1 → 18/1 (-0.14pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.35pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newmarket, 15 May 2026 — 7th • open 16/1 → final market price 14/1 (+0.78pp).

Opened 20/1Market avg 16/1Implied win: 6.0% · Loss: 94.0%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.35pp(+22.0%)
14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 → 16/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 18/1 ↓ 14/1 ↑ 16/1 ↓ 14/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
18/1 19 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 18/1Coral 18/1Ladbrokes 18/1Star Sports 18/17Bet 16/1BetTom 16/1BetWright 16/1Betfred 16/1Dragon Bet 16/1Hollywood Bets 16/1LiveScore Bet 16/1Midnite 16/1Quinn Bet 16/1SportingIndex 16/1Spreadex 16/1Virgin Bet 16/1Betfair Sportsbook 16/1Paddy Power 16/110 Bet 14/1Bet Victor 14/1BetMGM 14/1Betano 14/1Boyle Sports 14/1Unibet 14/1William Hill 14/1
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today1m 13y · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners20/1+3.07ppOpen → 10am12/1-1.73pp10am → now; SP pending16/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.35ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-1.73pp since 10am, as of 18:57. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Blue Samuna is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 3.07pp by 10am. Drifted by 1.73pp since 10am. As of 18:57; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 9/1 (10.40 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 66/220 (30%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16.2%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported1 of 13 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Love You More +11.89pp
  • Drifting3 of 13 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Crown The Future -5.75pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Kev +5.56pp · biggest drift: Love You More -2.99pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Kev
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
19:30Southwell (AW) • Flat • 7f14y • Class 5 • Going: Standard
3 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

19:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksAnthropologistDraw 3
Trainer: Michael Herrington
Jockey: Dylan Hogan
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/4 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 12/1 · 63% shorter today
Last run29 days ago · 25 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP15/21 recorded win in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
85th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE85th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 13 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Raw Open → Now price change: 8.4% • +1.66 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Southwell (AW), 14 Mar 2026 — 2nd • open 12/1 → final market price 8/1 (+3.42pp).

Opened 9/2Market avg 4/1Implied win: 19.8% · Loss: 80.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.66pp(+8.4%)
4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 → 4/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/2 5.5 decimal Coral
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Coral 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2Midnite 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/210 Bet 4/17Bet 4/1Bet365 4/1BetMGM 4/1BetTom 4/1BetWright 4/1Betfred 4/1Boyle Sports 4/1Dragon Bet 4/1Hollywood Bets 4/1LiveScore Bet 4/1Quinn Bet 4/1SportingIndex 4/1Spreadex 4/1Virgin Bet 4/1William Hill 4/1Paddy Power 4/1Bet Victor 7/2Betano 7/2Betfair Sportsbook 7/2
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 14 runners9/2+1.82ppOpen → 10am4/1-0.16pp10am → now; SP pending4/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.66pp
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amHolding-0.16pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 5 · Last run: Class 5 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 13 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Anthropologist is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 1.82pp by 10am. Drifted by 0.16pp since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 14 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 4/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 5
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 10/3 (4.31 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 16/68 (23.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 17.4%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksPacketofbiscuitsDraw 4
Trainer: John Mackie
Jockey: Oisin Orr
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
10AM EMERGING PATTERNFrozen 10am Emerging market pattern. This is an early pattern, not yet a fully established repeat-winner signal.

Source: stored dcn_signal_flags classification for today. This signal is frozen at 10am; the live price can move afterwards without changing the 10am classification.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
COURSE RECORD3/6 top 2Southwell (AW)Average course SP 11/2 · Today close to the course average
Last run15 days ago · 9 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP11/22 recorded wins in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
93th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE93rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
UNUSUAL FOR THIS HORSE
Only 1 of 14 previous runs showed stronger support: the horse finished 3rd at Newcastle (AW) on 10 Feb 2026 (+5.88pp).
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Raw Open → Now price change: 30.3% • +4.58 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newcastle (AW), 10 Feb 2026 — 3rd • open 16/1 → final market price 15/2 (+5.88pp).

Opened 17/2Market avg 11/2Implied win: 15.1% · Loss: 84.9%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+4.58pp(+30.3%)
5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 11/2 ↑ 13/2 ↓ 5/1 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
13/2 7.5 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 13/2SportingIndex 13/2Spreadex 13/27Bet 6/1BetWright 6/1Coral 6/1Dragon Bet 6/1Ladbrokes 6/1Midnite 6/1Star Sports 6/1BetMGM 11/2Betfred 11/2Hollywood Bets 11/2LiveScore Bet 11/2Quinn Bet 11/2Unibet 11/2Virgin Bet 11/2William Hill 11/2Betfair Sportsbook 11/2Bet Victor 5/1BetTom 5/1Betano 5/1Boyle Sports 5/1Paddy Power 5/110 Bet 9/2
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What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 14 runners17/2+3.76ppOpen → 10am6/1+0.82pp10am → now; SP pending11/2Current; SP pendingPending+4.58pp
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+4.58ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer8.5% → 37.5%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 16 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+0.82pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 5 · Last run: Class 4 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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John Mackie runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 6/16 (a 37.5% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 8.5% strike rate. Just 1 of 14 previous runs showed a stronger move, so today’s market behaviour is significant for this particular horse against its previous Open → final market price moves. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 4 to Class 5, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Packetofbiscuits has shortened from 17/2 to 11/2, which is support (+4.58pp).

Shortened by 3.76pp by 10am. Shortened by 0.82pp more since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Southwell (AW) · 11 Mar 2026 · 2nd · 4/4 known conditions match
✓Track: Southwell (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 5
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 11/2 (6.44 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 6/16 (37.5%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 8.5%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
19:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksRibble EmperorDraw 6
Trainer: Mark Loughnane
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
PRO RACECARD ↗
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run146 days ago · 31 May 2026
Distance changeUp 0.8f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE75th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Raw Open → Now price change: 16.2% • +1.76 probability points
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Listowel (IRE), 31 May 2026 — 11th • open 20/1 → final market price 11/1 (+3.57pp).

Opened 10/1Market avg 8/1Implied win: 10.8% · Loss: 89.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.76pp(+16.2%)
8/1 → 8/1 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 8/1 → 8/1 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 15/2 ↑ 17/2 ↓ 8/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/1 10 decimal Coral
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Coral 9/1Ladbrokes 9/1Unibet 9/17Bet 17/2Bet365 17/2BetWright 17/2Dragon Bet 17/2Hollywood Bets 17/2LiveScore Bet 17/2Star Sports 17/2Virgin Bet 17/2William Hill 17/210 Bet 8/1BetMGM 8/1BetTom 8/1Betfred 8/1Boyle Sports 8/1Midnite 8/1Quinn Bet 8/1Betfair Sportsbook 8/1Paddy Power 8/1Bet Victor 15/2Betano 15/2SportingIndex 15/2Spreadex 15/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today7f 14y · Class 5 · Standard · 14 runners10/1+5.19ppOpen → 10am6/1-3.44pp10am → now; SP pending8/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.76pp
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-3.44pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 5 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Ribble Emperor is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 5.19pp by 10am. Drifted by 3.44pp since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 4pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/12 (25%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 6/1 (7.10 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 7/42 (16.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 4.9%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported1 of 14 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Packetofbiscuits +4.58pp
  • Drifting5 of 14 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Akabusi -5.64pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Espanita +0.78pp · biggest drift: Packetofbiscuits -1.10pp
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
20:00Southwell (AW) • Flat • 6f16y • Class 4 • Going: Standard
2 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

20:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksCrystal DarkDraw 1
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run21 days ago · 3 Oct 2026
Distance changeDown 0.9f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +5.7% • +2.07pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.59pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 13/8 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 13/8 → 13/8 (+0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.47pp
Previous market evidence

No previous positive open-to-final market support in the recorded sample.

Opened 15/8Market avg 7/4Implied win: 36.5% · Loss: 63.5%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.47pp(+4.1%)
13/8 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 → 7/4 ↑ 15/8 ↑ 2/1 ↓ 13/8 ↑ 7/4 → 7/4
BEST FIXED ODDS
2/1 3 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 2/1BetMGM 15/8Betfred 15/810 Bet 7/47Bet 7/4BetTom 7/4BetWright 7/4Coral 7/4Dragon Bet 7/4Ladbrokes 7/4Midnite 7/4Quinn Bet 7/4Star Sports 7/4Unibet 7/4William Hill 7/4Paddy Power 7/4Bet Victor 13/8Betano 13/8Boyle Sports 13/8Hollywood Bets 13/8SportingIndex 13/8Spreadex 13/8Betfair Sportsbook 13/8
23 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners15/8+6.94ppOpen → 10am11/8-5.47pp10am → now; SP pending7/4Current; SP pendingPending+1.47ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-5.47pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 3 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The horse drops from Class 3 to Class 4, but the market has not responded with meaningful support. Today’s move: Crystal Dark is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 6.94pp by 10am. Drifted by 5.47pp since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 6pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 6/19 (31.6%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 05 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)×Trip (within ½f): Today 6f 16y · previous 7f 14y✓Ground: Standard×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 6/4 (2.50 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 27/104 (26%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:00Southwell (AW)
Racing silksAl ArraabDraw 3
Trainer: Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey: Oisin Orr
PRO RACECARD ↗
⬇ CLASS DROP
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run51 days ago · 3 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +35.7% • +6.94pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.37pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 11/2 @ 09:28
NR @ 09:28: 11/2 → 11/2 (+0.37pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +6.57pp
Limited data: 1 similar run only. Not a proven betting pattern.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Haydock, 03 Sep 2026 — 2nd • open 18/1 → final market price 10/1 (+3.69pp).

Opened 7/1Market avg 4/1Implied win: 19.4% · Loss: 80.6%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+6.57pp(+34.4%)
4/1 ↑ 9/2 ↓ 7/2 → 7/2 ↑ 4/1 → 4/1 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 4/1 ↓ 10/3 ↑ 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
5/1 6 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 5/110 Bet 9/2Betfred 9/2Coral 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2Star Sports 9/2Unibet 9/2William Hill 9/2Bet Victor 4/1BetMGM 4/1BetTom 4/1Boyle Sports 4/1Hollywood Bets 4/1SportingIndex 4/1Spreadex 4/1Betfair Sportsbook 4/1Paddy Power 4/1BetWright 7/2Betano 7/2Dragon Bet 7/27Bet 10/3
23 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners7/1+9.35ppOpen → 10am7/2-2.79pp10am → now; SP pending4/1Current; SP pendingPending+6.57ppNR adjusted
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+6.57ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer9.7% → 28.7%Open → SP · backed 5pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 87 runners, Open → SP · backed 5pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-2.79pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 4 · Last run: Class 3 · ↓ Class drop
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Richard & Peter Fahey runners in the matching 5pp+ band have won 25/87 (a 28.7% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 9.7% strike rate. There is only one comparable recorded run for this horse, so its own history is an early clue rather than a reliable pattern. The support is accompanied by a drop from Class 3 to Class 4, giving the horse more favourable conditions today. Today’s move: Al Arraab has shortened from 7/1 to 4/1, which is support (+6.57pp).

Shortened by 9.35pp by 10am. Drifted by 2.79pp since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 8pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/10 (30%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Haydock · 03 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 1/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Haydock✓Trip (within ½f): 6f 16y×Ground: Today Standard · previous Soft×Class: Today Class 4 · previous Class 3
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 10/3 (4.37 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 12/33 (36.4%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 9/2 (5.60 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 25/87 (28.7%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 9.7%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported1 of 7 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Al Arraab +6.57pp
  • Drifting2 of 7 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: The Honey Thief -6.20pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest drift: Al Arraab -1.82pp
  • Market surges0 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
20:30Southwell (AW) • Flat • 6f16y • Class 6 • Going: Standard
3 runners
Runner EliminatorTick the evidence you require. Runners that fail a selected test are faded out. Uses full available horse history. Runners awaiting evidence stay visible until it is ready.

Full field shown.

20:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksMehmarDraw 7
Trainer: Jack Jones
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
PRO RACECARD ↗
SURFACE SWITCHTurf → AW
Last run94 days ago · 22 Jul 2026
Distance changeDown 1.9f from last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +58.8% • +21.98pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +4.00pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/4 @ 11:03
NR @ 07:37: 5/1 → 9/2 (+1.04pp removed)
NR @ 08:12: 4/1 → 7/2 (+1.71pp removed)
NR @ 11:03: 5/2 → 9/4 (+1.25pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +17.98pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
100th HISTORICAL PERCENTILETHE STRONGEST MOVE RECORDED (100th percentile)
EXTREME FOR THIS HORSE
Strongest support recorded across 10 previous runs.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
0/2 placed when backed like this (0%).
When backed like this: 0/2 WON
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Fairyhouse (IRE), 28 May 2026 — 5th • open 16/1 → final market price 5/1 (+10.78pp).

All 2 comparable backed runs (1st or 2nd counts as placed):

  • Fairyhouse (IRE), 28 May 2026 — 5th • open 16/1 → final 5/1
  • Dundalk (AW) (IRE), 16 Jan 2026 — 6th • open 33/1 → final 10/1
Opened 11/2Market avg 13/8Implied win: 37.4% · Loss: 62.6%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+17.98pp(+53.9%)
6/4 ↑ 13/8 ↓ 6/4 ↑ 13/8 ↓ 6/4 ↑ 15/8 ↓ 7/4 ↓ 6/4 ↑ 13/8 → 13/8
BEST FIXED ODDS
9/4 3.25 decimal SportingIndex
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
SportingIndex 9/4Spreadex 9/4BetMGM 15/8Bet365 7/4Dragon Bet 7/4Midnite 7/4Unibet 7/4William Hill 7/4LiveScore Bet 7/4Virgin Bet 7/410 Bet 13/87Bet 13/8BetWright 13/8Betfred 13/8Quinn Bet 13/8Paddy Power 13/8Bet Victor 6/4BetTom 6/4Betano 6/4Boyle Sports 6/4Coral 6/4Hollywood Bets 6/4Ladbrokes 6/4Star Sports 6/4Betfair Sportsbook 6/4
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners11/2+15.20ppOpen → 10am2/1+2.78pp10am → now; SP pending13/8Current; SP pendingPending+17.98ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
TRAINER RECORD MAKES THIS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTMarket+17.98ppGenuine support from the opening price.Trainer12.7% → 33.3%Open → SP · backed 15pp+Baseline → matching strike rate; 9 runners, Open → SP · backed 15pp+. Historical sample requires opening, 10am and official SP prices. Popup uses opening → final market price and a broader results baseline.Horse historyMissed top 2: 2/2Comparable support: 0 first/second finishes in 2 completed runs.Since 10amStrengthening+2.78pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: class not recorded
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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Jack Jones runners in the matching 15pp+ band have won 3/9 (a 33.3% Open→SP strike rate), compared with the trainer’s normal 12.7% strike rate. Across 10 previous runs, this is the horse’s strongest recorded support compared with its previous Open → final market price moves. When backed in a similar way previously, it finished first or second in 0 of 2 runs. Today’s move: Mehmar has shortened from 11/2 to 13/8, which is exceptional support (+17.98pp).

Shortened by 15.20pp by 10am. Shortened by 2.78pp more since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +20.00pp · around 6/4 (2.54 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 3/5 (60%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%. Small sample.

Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 3/1 (4.10 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 15/41 (36.6%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +10.00pp · around 5/2 (3.40 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 6/17 (35.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%.

Trainer support level

Support of +15.00pp · around 15/8 (2.91 decimal).

Level reached — watch whether support holds.

Trainer won 3/9 (33.3%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 12.7%. Small sample.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksUncle SamDraw 1
Trainer: Ray Craggs
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
🟡 Mixed ProfileNo consistent market pattern yet. Horse has delivered both with support and while drifting. Market signals are less reliable for this runner for now.
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
COURSE RECORD1/1 top 2Southwell (AW) · 1 run onlyAverage course SP 4/1 · 12% bigger today
Last run29 days ago · 25 Sep 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +9.4% • +1.66pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +1.29pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/2 @ 11:03
NR @ 07:37: 11/2 → 11/2 (-0.20pp removed)
NR @ 08:12: 4/1 → 7/2 (+2.08pp removed)
NR @ 11:03: 9/2 → 9/2 (-0.59pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +0.37pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE50th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Newcastle (AW), 03 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 10/3 → final market price 5/2 (+4.76pp).

Opened 5/1Market avg 9/2Implied win: 17.8% · Loss: 82.2%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+0.37pp(+2.2%)
9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2 ↑ 6/1 ↓ 9/2 → 9/2 → 9/2
BEST FIXED ODDS
6/1 7 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 6/1Betfred 5/1Unibet 5/1William Hill 5/110 Bet 9/27Bet 9/2Bet Victor 9/2BetMGM 9/2BetTom 9/2BetWright 9/2Betano 9/2Boyle Sports 9/2Coral 9/2Dragon Bet 9/2Hollywood Bets 9/2Ladbrokes 9/2Midnite 9/2Quinn Bet 9/2SportingIndex 9/2Spreadex 9/2Star Sports 9/2Betfair Sportsbook 9/2Paddy Power 9/2LiveScore Bet 9/2Virgin Bet 9/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners5/1+5.08ppOpen → 10am10/3-4.71pp10am → now; SP pending9/2Current; SP pendingPending+0.37ppNR adjusted
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-4.71pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

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AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 4 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Uncle Sam is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 5.08pp by 10am. Drifted by 4.71pp since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPAREClosest recorded top-two run: Newcastle (AW) · 25 Sep 2026 · 2nd · 3/4 known conditions match
×Track: Today Southwell (AW) · previous Newcastle (AW)✓Trip (within ½f): 6f 16y✓Ground: Standard✓Class: Class 6
WHAT TO WATCH NOW

No evidence-backed price trigger for this runner yet. Use Notify Me to monitor it; the current records do not justify a target price.

TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
20:30Southwell (AW)
Racing silksEdmond HalleyDraw 13
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Jockey: Jack Callan
PRO RACECARD ↗
↔ SAME CLASS
SURFACE SWITCHStays on AW
Last run12 days ago · 12 Oct 2026
Distance changeSimilar trip to last run
More evidence
Average winning SP—No recorded winning SP in the loaded Market Form sample
NR adjusted
Genuine shortening after removing the measured NR price effect.
Raw Open → Now: +10.5% • +1.80pp
Measured NR price effect removed: +0.61pp
Latest confirmed post-NR price: 9/2 @ 11:03
NR @ 07:37: 6/1 → 11/2 (+0.97pp removed)
NR @ 08:12: 5/1 → 11/2 (-0.72pp removed)
NR @ 11:03: 9/2 → 9/2 (+0.37pp removed)
GENUINE NR-ADJUSTED MOVE: +1.18pp
HISTORICAL COMPARISON: Open → final market price
33th HISTORICAL PERCENTILE33rd HISTORICAL PERCENTILE
NO MEANINGFUL MOVE YET
No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 9 previous Open → final market price moves.
Today Open → Now compared with previous Open → final market price moves. Ratings compare with Open → recorded SP.
Previous market evidence

Strongest previous Open → final market support: Hamilton, 21 Sep 2026 — 3rd • open 11/4 → final market price 4/5 (+28.53pp).

Opened 11/2Market avg 5/1Implied win: 17.2% · Loss: 82.8%Calculated as 100 ÷ decimal market average odds. For example, 9/2 = 5.5 decimal = 18.2% win, 81.8% loss. Uses the underlying average before fractional rounding. Includes bookmaker margin; this is implied probability, not a forecast or guarantee.
Price move+1.18pp(+7.1%)
5/1 → 5/1 → 5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 5/1 ↓ 7/2 ↑ 11/2 ↓ 5/1 ↓ 9/2 ↑ 5/1
BEST FIXED ODDS
11/2 6.5 decimal Bet365
● Live bookmakers30s refresh
Bet365 11/2Unibet 11/2William Hill 11/210 Bet 5/1Bet Victor 5/1BetTom 5/1Betano 5/1Betfred 5/1Boyle Sports 5/1Coral 5/1Hollywood Bets 5/1Ladbrokes 5/1Midnite 5/1Quinn Bet 5/1Star Sports 5/1Betfair Sportsbook 5/1Paddy Power 5/1LiveScore Bet 5/1Virgin Bet 5/17Bet 9/2BetWright 9/2Dragon Bet 9/2BetMGM 7/2SportingIndex 7/2Spreadex 7/2
25 bookmakers · scroll for all
What do this horse’s best and worst runs look like?

Today is highlighted in both tabs. Worst runs shows the five highest recorded finishing positions (third or worse). Click a past run for its post-race comment. Green pp = shortening; red pp = drifting. Open → 10am shows early support; 10am → SP shows what followed; Open → SP shows the full move. Today uses current prices until SP is available, with measured non-runner effects removed.

RacecourseOpenOpen → 10am10am10am → SP/NowSP / currentFinishOpen → SP/Now
Southwell (AW)Today6f 16y · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners11/2+8.18ppOpen → 10am10/3-6.99pp10am → now; SP pending5/1Current; SP pendingPending+1.18ppNR adjusted
No recorded first or second finishes for this horse yet.
NO MEANINGFUL MARKET SIGNAL YETMarketNo signalNo meaningful market move yet.TrainerLimited dataNot enough matching trainer evidence.Horse historyLimited dataNot enough comparable completed runs.Since 10amWeakening-6.99pp since 10am, as of 19:06. Measures the current move, not a forecast.View Market ReadHide Market Read
CLASSToday: Class 6 · Last run: Class 6 · Same class
IS THE MOVE HOLDING?

Reading the available captures…

More market evidence
AGAINST THE REST OF THE FIELD

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MATCHING MARKET JOURNEYS

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TRAINER RECORD AT COMPARABLE ODDS

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No meaningful directional move yet. Historical comparison uses 9 previous Open → final market price moves. Today’s move: Edmond Halley is trading close enough to its opening position that neither meaningful support nor meaningful weakness has been established.

Shortened by 8.18pp by 10am. Drifted by 6.99pp since 10am. As of 19:06; SP pending. If it keeps shortening into SP: this trainer’s runners with 8pp+ support by 10am that kept shortening from 10am to SP won 3/11 (27.3%). This is a historical win rate, not a prediction.

HOW TODAY’S CONDITIONS COMPARENo recorded first or second finish with comparable conditions available.
WHAT TO WATCH NOW
Trainer support level

Support of +5.00pp · around 4/1 (4.76 decimal).

Not reached — watch for support to reach this level.

Trainer won 27/104 (26%) when backed this much by SP; normal strike rate 16%.

Times show the first recorded capture available, not the exact market crossing. Earlier hits remain visible if support reverses. These records use final/SP moves; a level reached live is provisional until the off and does not guarantee a result.
TIMING & CONTEXT
EARLY BETTING MARKET
Previous evening · average odds · UK time
Open this section to load the evening prices.
Best time: Open was biggest
Weakening late
Race market overview as at 19:08
  • Supported1 of 11 runners at +4pp or more · strongest: Mehmar +17.98pp
  • Drifting3 of 11 runners at −4pp or worse · largest: Piperstown -7.46pp
  • Last 15 minbiggest gain: Edmond Halley +3.33pp · biggest drift: Mehmar -3.30pp
  • Market surges1 runners gained at least +3pp in 15 min · Edmond Halley
15-minute snapshot 19:07 · no additional market query
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