Cheltenham Trends: Get familiar before the season starts!

Daryl Carter highlights the Cheltenham Trends before the start of the season to give members a head start and avoid wasting cash on ante-post bets.

• Supreme trends blown by Kopek’s 2025 win

• Course form

• Elliott still to win a Champion Hurdle

Cheltenham Trends

For more race trends head to https://www.gaultstats.com/ . It is imperative to get to know these trends to avoid making any ante-post mistakes – like when people start quoting stupid horses that win in October for the Festival! Be Aware!

Supreme

• Three of the last five Supremes had a false start

• Kopeck Des Bordes the only to wear any type of headgear since Flown in 1992

• Champagne Fever ’13 the only Champion Bumper winner to double up since

• Montelado in ’93. Six of the last seven bumper winners to try, all beaten at under 9/1.

• Appreciate It, ’21 only winner since 2012 previously beaten in Champion Bumper

• 11 of the last 13 had won at least a G2 novice hurdle.

• 16 of the last 19 won last time out.

• Marine Nationale, first Royal Bond double since 2002. Eight other Royal Bond winners had tried since 2002, four placed here.

• This century no second season winner raced their first hurdle season in GB/IRE

• 21 of the last 22 had won at least 50% of all hurdle starts in GB and IRE.

• Constitution Hill, only winner since 2008 with less than three previous hurdle runs.

• In nine of the last 12, W Mullins trained at least one horse to finish in the first two.

• In the last 11, 17 horses came with a BHA Rating of at least 153. Six won and five others were placed.

• Labaik only winner in last 12 with BHA Rating under 147. And the only one with an SP returned greater than 9/1.

• Only Appreciate It of the last 16 not a 5 or 6 yr old.

• 16 of the 17 had won at least two hurdles.

• Eight of the last 11 had won all completed starts that season.

• W Mullins/N Henderson responsible for eight of the last 12 winners.

ARKLE

• Edwardstone only winner in last 14 not aged either 6 or 7 years

• 15 of last 17 already rated 151+ over fences

• Only one winner this century not favourite or second favourite on the previous run.

• N Henderson has run 10 with hurdle rating 145+. Five won, four others second

• Only Gaelic Warrior and Western Warhorse of the last 23 wore headgear

• W Mullins and N Henderson have won 10 of the last 13

• 16 of the last 18 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham

• 10 of the last 13 favourites have won. Seven at odds on

• No winner coming off the back of a fall since Moscow Flyer ’02

• All bar Gaelic Warrior of the last 15 won last time out

• This century only Well Chief/Western Warhorse winning with one chase run

• 16 of the last 18 were rated 142+ over hurdles

• This century only two winners had fallen this season. And Gaelic Warrior U.

• 16 from the last 20 had three or four chase runs, the other four were unbeaten when completing.

• All winners this century had already won a race with today’s jockey

• The last three Supreme winners to come were Altior, Douvan, and Shishkin. All won.

Champion Hurdle

• All bar two this century raced at a previous Festival

• 15 of the last 17 had already won a Grade 1

• Seven of the last 16 ran in the Kempton Xmas Hurdle. Nine didn’t.

• Since 1984 only 6 winners were unplaced in any completed run that season.

• Only two of the last 18 had run more than 12 times over hurdles

• 15 of the last 16 won by either Irish trainers or Nicky Henderson.

• All bar four this century won their previous start.

• The last 10 winners were all unbeaten that season.

• Mares to win – Honeysuckle x2, Epatante, Annie Power, Flakey Dove, Dawn Run

• Only Flakey Dove of those mares didn’t start favourite

• All bar Constitution Hill of the last 17 had all won at least six NH races.

• N Henderson has trained nine winners including six of the last 16.

• No headgear wearing winners since Jezki 2014

• This century only one BF last time has won.

• G Elliott yet to win

DAY 2

Turners Novice Hurdle

• This century only four winners failed to win last time out.

• All 21 Challow winners to come beaten, but six of the last ten to try were placed

• Nine of the last 11 winners aged six yrs

• Paul Nicholls yet to win

• None of the last 10 more than three hurdle runs that season

• The last nine won their previous two races

• Ballyburn only one of WPMs seven winners to be beaten that season

• 13 of the last 16 had already won a Graded hurdle

• Since 2005, 31 runners began their careers on the Flat. All beaten

• Irish trained 10 of the last 11. P Townend has ridden the last three

• Only one of the last 17 with an SP of over 8/1

• Top six in the previous year’s Bumper priced here at 8s or less. 20 qualifiers. Six winners and six placed.

• Since 1990, no winner’s previous race was in a handicap.

• The last 15 won at least one bumper in GB or IRE

Brown Advisory

• All 22 Kempton Kauto Star winners to come here have been beaten

• 14 of the last 15 had between six and 13 runs in total over fences and hurdles

• All bar Don Poli of the last 17 aged 7 or 8 yrs

• FRE breds two winners since 2006. L’Homme Presse and Fact To File

• 17 of the last 18 already 1st or 2nd in at least G2 chase. (Might Bite unlucky)

• The last ten already had a BHA chase rating of 150+

• Nine from the last 10 from the top three in the betting

• No mare has won since Brief Gale in ’95.

• Only two winners this century with two previous chase runs

• Baring Bingham/Broadway double last achieved in 1988. Only Sir Gerhard of the last 12 has tried.

• The Real Whacker first since 2002 to make their chase debut over 3 miles

• 12 from the last 17 had won at least a Listed or £20k hurdle

• Nine from the last 13 rated at least 143 over hurdles

• No headgear wearing winners in the last 23

• This century only Champ came here to win on the back of a fall.

• This century only two failed to be 1st or 2nd last time out.

• 14 of the last 18 had run at a previous Festival

• G Elliott yet to win this

Champion Chase

• The last 16 winners had raced here before

• Irish trained have taken the last four

• This century only Politologue and Sizing Europe had yet to win that season

• Energumene and Finians Rainbow only winners this century BF last time out

• Only two winners this century hadn’t run in the calendar year

• No headgear-wearing winner since at least 1990

• However, in the last 10, four horses wearing headgear have finished 2nd.

• From 2008 only Captain Guinness had yet to win a G1

• 18 of the last 25 placed horses were already G1 winners

• This century there have been 12 odds on favs. Only three won.

• 18 of the last 20 had run only two or three times that season.

• Only one winner returned bigger than 11s since 1993.

• N Henderson has won five of the last 13

• H de Bromhead four of the last 14.

• Jack Richards Handicap Novice Chase

• Three of the last five contested Graded novice chase last time

• 12 of the past 13 had run three or four times over fences

• 15 of the 16 had won no more than twice over fences

• 13 of the 16 won or finished second last time out

• Four of the last eight contested the January course Timeform Nov Handicap Chase

• 12 of the 16 were aged six or seven years. Five year olds 2-13 in the past 12.

• All 16 ran after the turn of the year

• In the 16 races horses with 13+ chase runs were 0-129.

DAY 3

Ryanair

• The last 11winners ‘made all’, ‘tracked leaders’ or were ‘prominent.’

• Rachael Blackmore has ridden five times in this, finishing 11342.

• Last 12 aged seven to nine yrs

• Last nine ran in at least two previous Festivals

• Seven of the last eight were at least third season chasers

• None of the last 17 more than four previous runs that season

• 13 of the last 17 had already won a G1

• Last 15 BHA rated 161+. Those rated 170+ are four from six.

• Envoi Allen the only one in the last eight to contest that season’s King George

• Irish trained have won seven of the last nine

• 13 from the last 17 were course winners

• All the last 11 were FRE bred

• 12 from the last 13 SP no bigger than 17/2

• Eight of the last 10 were 1st or 2nd last time in at least a G2

Stayers H

• Since 1972 only seven horses aged nine or older have won. Six of those seven were previous Festival winners

• Nine from the last 11 aged either 6 or 7 yrs

• Seven of the last 11 were second season hurdlers.

• No Boyne Hurdle double since Dorans Pride in 1995

• Every winner since 1986 finished in the first 4 on last completed run

• Leopardstown Xmas Hurdle has produced three of the last four winners

• Since Iris’s Gift 2004 only two have been previously beaten in this race. The last two.

• Inglis Drever 2007 was the last to regain title. Missed a season through injury.

• Three from the last seven were the first to come from the previous year’s A Bartlett

• 17 from the last 21 finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

• 23 from last 24 previously placed at least at Grade 1 level

• Last 23 had won at least a Grade 2

• 24 of last 27 win and placed already placed in a 3m Grade 1 hurdle.

• Sire De Berlais first headgear wearing winner since Nomadic Way in 1992

• Last two the first this century to come from that season’s Hattons Grace

• WPM hasn’t won it since Penhill 2018

• N Henderson hasn’t won it since Bacchanal 2000

DAY 4

Triumph

• N Henderson – Seven winners going back to First Bout in 1985

• W Mullins trained four of the last five

• 26 fillies priced 14/1 and under have run. Five have won, 11 others placed

• Zarkandar in 2011 was last Adonis winner to double up.

• Four winners in 37 with only one previous race over hurdles in GB or IRE

• The last four were placed in the DRF Grade 1

• 15 of the last 20 from the front four in the market

• There has only ever been one odds on winner- Attivo 1974

• The last 26 winners ran between 18 and 55 days before

• 10 of the last 12 not outside the first two in any previous GB or IRE hurdle run

• Only three of the last 19 had their first hurdle run after 10th January

• 17 of the last 18 to have raced on the Flat, had raced at 1m 4f

• Seven winners and six seconds in the last nine renewals were FRE bred

• Only two of the last 17 more than three hurdle runs in GB or IRE

Albert Bartlett

• 12 of the last 13 favs no graded hurdle placed form over at least 2m 7f. All 12 beat.

• 17 of the last 19 were six or seven years of age

• Only 13 of the 20 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class

• Only The Nice Guy and Monkfish of the 20 had yet to be placed in a Graded hurdle

• Nine winners of the G2 late January 2m 5f course trial have run. Three won, two placed

• 11 of the last 14 had placed hurdle form over at least 2m 7f.

• Vanillier only FRE Bred winner in last 16

• Irish Trained have taken five of the last six

• 17 of the 20 top three finish last time out

• Seven of the 20 were course winners. 11 others had never been before

• 11 from the last 15 already BHA rated 140+

• Only three of the 20 with less than three runs over hurdles

• None of the last 17 ran in either the Cheltenham or Aintree bumpers

• No winning favourite since 2013, 10 the last 11 priced 10/1 plus.

• No mare has won this. Few have tried.

Gold Cup

• Only two winners were BF last time out. A Plus Tard and Minella Indo

• No winner ran on officially heavy ground that season

• None were aged 10 years or over, including four favourites

• A Plus Tard and Native River the only first time winners, having been beaten in it before

• Only Native River wore any sort of headgear

• Only two had previously raced over further than the GC trip

• Only two with more than 13 previous chase starts, none more than 20.

• Only two failed to finish 1st or 2nd last time out

• Only two had failed to already win that season

• All were already G1 winners

• All bar A Plus Tard went chasing immediately after novice hurdle campaign

• Only two winners bigger than 10/1

• No Cotswold Chase double since 2000