Historical data for this race paints a very clear picture of the type of horse most likely to win. By studying age patterns, weight trends, official ratings and form indicators, we can narrow the field dramatically and consistently identify value runners.

Age: 8-Year-Olds Dominate

Eight-year-olds are the standout age group, producing the best strike rate and strongest blind profit. Seven-year-olds also fit the ideal profile, while 6yo runners underperform despite occasional wins. Avoid 5yo and 9yo contenders completely.

Market Position: Look Beyond the Favourite

Favourites have a dreadful record in this race, with just one winning favourite since 2009. Instead, winners overwhelmingly come from 2nd–4th in the market, a bracket that delivers over half of all victories and remains profitable to follow.

Weight: Lower Is Better

Horses carrying 11st or less hold a major advantage. This group accounts for most recent winners and delivers a significantly stronger strike rate than those carrying more.

Official Ratings: The Sweet Spot

The most successful rating band is 132–143, producing around two-thirds of winners. This bracket has performed particularly well across the last 10 renewals.

Form & Recency: The Crucial Window

A recent run is essential. The vast majority of winners ran 16–30 days ago, many of them winning or placing last time out. The Paddy Power Gold Cup has also proven a major feeder race, often producing the winner or a strong contender.

Cheltenham Experience Matters

A massive 21 of the last 22 winners had run at Cheltenham before, cementing course experience as a core requirement. Although winning form at the track isn’t mandatory, it is a notable bonus.

Distance & Chase Profile

Every winner in the last 17 years had previously won over 2m4f–2m5f, with most having exactly one or two victories at the trip. Horses with ≤4 chase wins generally fit the ideal profile unless they possess deep experience (20+ chase runs).

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Conclusion

The data shows that the ideal winner is:

• A 7yo or 8yo
• 2nd–4th favourite
• Carrying ≤11st
• Rated 132–143
• Ran 16–30 days ago, finishing in the first two
• Has Cheltenham experience and distance-winning credentials

This powerful combination consistently identifies the horses best suited to the race and highlights where the real value lies for bettors.

Category	Ideal Profile	Tick
Age	7yo or 8yo	☐
Market Position	2nd–4th favourite	☐
Weight	11st or lower	☐
Official Rating (OR)	132 – 143	☐
Days Since Last Run	16–30 days	☐
Last-Time-Out Form	Won or placed 2nd	☐
Key LTO Race	Ran in Paddy Power Gold Cup	☐
Cheltenham Experience	Has run at Cheltenham	☐
Cheltenham Win	(Optional) Has won at Cheltenham	☐
Distance Wins	1–2 wins at 2m4f–2m5f	☐
Chase Wins	4 or fewer (unless 20+ runs)	☐
Combined Trend	OR 132–143 & ≤11st	☐