BRAINWASHED BETTORS – Why the term “favourite” means NOTHING
Race bettors have been brainwashed with the term “favourite”
(Stats pulled from various sources)
What is a favourite for a horse race – Variously referred to as the “jolly” or “market leader”, the favourite in any given race is simply the horse with the shortest odds and, therefore – at least in theory – the strongest chance of winning.
Favourites win around 30-35% of races. Favourites have historically won between one-third and two-fifths of all races, with no significant change over time, suggesting that they are beat more often than not. Generally, 32% – flat races only – UK-based platforms (such as Doncaster or Newbury) show this figure. This observation holds across different types of races and areas.
There are three main reasons any punters back “favourites”. Perceived safety, influence of Tipsters and Market Momentum: As more people bet on a horse, its odds shorten, reinforcing its status as the favourite.
People who back every favourite do so in the mistaken belief that each favourite has the best chance in a race. Most favourites are false favourites, as evidenced by the fact that only about three out of 10 of them win.
Naturally, a punter following this method of investment will strike runs of consistent profits; there will be other times, though, and plenty of them, when losses will spiral to massive amounts.
Even if you got 30 winners from every 100 bets, you would need to be averaging 2.33 to 1 on each winning favourite, just to break even. Statistics show you would be fortunate to achieve this average price.
That covers backing favourites blindly. However, any serious punter should not be backing any favourite unquestioningly and assessing the value in the price rather than the given term “favourite”.
A plan drawn up along the lines of class, form, and ground conditions, and all the things we have discussed in this series so far, would mean you would only be backing strong favourites, which would dramatically improve your winning percentage.
Most professionals agree that 40 per cent of all favourites are ‘false, meaning they should be at much higher prices – and here lies the problem when backing every favourite blind.
There lies the key, “true prices”. Regardless if the favourite is a “favourite”, the price of the horse is what matters, not the term “favourite”.
The term ‘favourite’ means nothing and has brainwashed race bettors since the beginning of time to avoid horses at the head of the betting- almost becoming a dirty term – and is inconsequential if the horse is a value price.
Many inexperienced punters will automatically look at the market and try to get a favourite beaten rather than delving into the facts to find out the true price and chance of winning.
Lots of so-called “favourites” are entered in at too short of a price, drift to a higher price and still win. A recent example of this was Windsor winner Westridge, which was advised not to take the 6/4 opening price and to wait for 9/4. He still went off “second favourite” for the race, only half a point bigger than the SP favourite, but won with plenty in hand.
The initial favourite, in this instance, was the correct bet, but not at the original price.
The term “favourite” brings no value to the punter. An outlandish example is if Frankel was a favourite for a Class 4 race at 9/4, would the play then be to take him on because he is a “favourite” or back the outstanding value?
By using the phrase favourite, inexperienced punters automatically have a dim view of the selection and will try and look elsewhere for “value”. However, there could be plenty of value in the favourite – Archivist, for example, was recently advised at 6/4 SP 2/5, regardless of the price, the value is either in the price or not, not in the term ‘favourite’.
Racing is a strange world in which everyone wants to agree – you see many podcasts happy when all participants agree on a horse. Therefore, the psychology in racing involves banding together with terms like trainer form or favourite.
The task behind this betting education series is to help you break free from the norm and become better bettors. The term favourite should no longer be looked at as dirty; in fact, it should be ignored altogether. The only thing that matters is if there is value in the price, not the given name of “favourite”.
Until you can rid the thought process of writing a horse off because of a turn of phrase, then the value at the top of the market will always go begging.
No matter what you tell some people, you can never persuade them to alter bad habits.
Many “big-priced punters” will assume they have better value in a selection when a price moves from 100/1 to 25/1. However, understanding the win probability in racing is essential. The “market move” from 100/1 to 25/1 represents only a 2.8% increase in win probability. However, many will get excited at this “big market move” when the reality is backing a favourite at 9/4 into 6/4 is almost an increased win probability of 10%!
It’s a common mistake for inexperienced punters to get excited about what looks to be a big market move, but the reality is those moving at the top of the betting have a more implied chance of winning with the same or less reduction in odds.
However, given how the racing populous has been brainwashed to look away from the “favourite”, they can miss out on exceptional value.
While the figures suggest that backing every favourite long term will require an exceptional strike rate to profit, they don’t take into account the value in any given selection, making them actually worthless. How many of those favourites opened at 6/4 and went off still favourite at 9/4?
The value lies in the price, not the given term ‘favourite’. Many horses are backed incorrectly into the top of the market, making them incorrect or “false” favourites.
In any given race, the market is likely to change entirely from the opening odds, and it’s the punter’s job to find the value in the selections regardless of whether they are an “outsider” or favourite.
I would implore all Daryl Carter followers to rid their minds of the term favourite and look at every horse’s value.
One final time, the term “favourite” means far less than racing has allowed you to believe.
