Episode 2: The Betting Diary

Written by Chris B (Premium Member)

Greetings All!

Before I get into the diary, I should mention that, as well as being a member of this service, I am also a member of the Bar Stewards racing service, Tom Collins’ US service, and Lewis Jones’ football service (although some of the members’ posts in the football chat within the DC group are second to none, and are genuinely making me question whether I need that service!). There are also a few other free people I follow, which I may drop in below depending on what’s happening this week.

Additionally, I play online poker fairly regularly — something I’m trying to improve my skills in, although time may be limited this week with work commitments, so it may only be at the weekend, if at all.

Ultimately, I’ve spent many years refining my list of the best people to follow and subscribe to in the aim of making profit from the sports and interests I’m passionate about — and I’ve had to kiss a few frogs along the way! For anyone I follow religiously, they must first and foremost be a long-term winner with a transparent P&L, and they must genuinely have a deep understanding of what racing and betting is all about. DC tops that list for me, especially in terms of value for money, although the Bar Stewards and Tom Collins also run profitable long-term services.

I’ll have some of my own punts too, but overall, I defer to those who have proved they can achieve long-term success in the game. In truth, most days I simply don’t have the time to do the level of study I’d like.

Tues 18th Nov

After catching up with work in the morning, I check the members’ chat. There’s a football bet from shrewdie DaveO on an Isthmian League Cup match which sounds tempting — but Betfair restricting me to £7.50 on the -1 handicap market quickly kyboshes that plan.

There’s also a public gallop at Newbury for Constitution Hill, who proves he still has four legs and can run. It tells us nothing, but it was nice to see him healthy and sound. Manlaga (Triumph hope) wasn’t very impressive to me despite working with older horses, and his work partner Galashiels looked like he could be an interesting recruit to novice hurdling. All this left me musing about how great it would be if there were more public work/schooling sessions accessible to punters — similar to the US — which might encourage more followers to the sport.

I then stick £20 on a Cheltenham AP treble of Constitution Hill / Macho Man / Kopek des Bordes for no real reason! I guess he is still Constitution Hill the legend, and I just want him onside ahead of March.

Checking personal emails, I see the Bar Stewards morning service has one advised bet (Hoseki – 5.45 Newcastle) with a minimum price of 15/8. I see 2/1 on the exchange, so I have the 1pt on.

Nothing from DC today, and honestly I’m quite glad of a small break from racing after a busy Cheltenham weekend where us DC members were frustratingly on the wrong side of lady luck several times.

Hoseki drifts through the day, and I have a 0.5pt top-up at 4.7 on the exchange. It’s backed in again to 9/4 by the off but runs poorly.

Getting distracted by work and life, I’m late reading DC’s selections for Warwick. I hate being late for selections as they are invariably backed quickly — especially in overnight markets — but I at least manage to get on them all above the minimum price.

Bar Stewards evening service also has two for tomorrow (again I’m late reading it). I get on Buzz Iceclear in the 12.46 Hexham at 2/1 which is above the minimum price, but the price has gone on the other (Grand Vista – 6.10 Kempton), so I’ll need to wait and see what the markets do tomorrow.

I also have 0.5pts on one of the only “best bets” from the CricStatz lads’ podcast (highly recommend as a go-to for cricket expertise) for the 1st Ashes Test — Alex Carey top Aus 1st innings bat at 9/1. I’ll wait for the exchange line for their 2pt best bet of Australia 1st Innings runs <300.
Note to self: the match starts in the early hours of Friday morning.

I now need to spend the evening working on my end-of-year review for my “proper job” — no rest for the wicked!

Day P&L: -1.5pts (-£45)

Wed 19th Nov

Wake up and check the markets. DC’s horses are all being nicely backed — hopefully a good sign — and makes me less frustrated about missing the best early prices last night. Buzz Iceclear had also come in for support at Hexham, but ironically the meeting is called off as it’s a very snowy scene. The other Bar Stewards tip, Grand Vista, is nearly back out to 2/1 on the exchange so I’m hopeful I’ll get on.

Bar Stewards post another tip in their 9am service — Watch Tower 1.45 Dundalk — which I’m late reading. The minimum price of 2/1 has currently gone, with it trading at 2.62 on the exchange. Another one to check again in a couple of hours.

Top DC group member James posts a positive comment from Pauling about Dunskay in the 2.35 Warwick, so I decide to have 0.5pts on him at 4/1.

I watch our winner Excelero on one of the coldest dog walks known to man. Unfortunately the others disappoint, and I’m caught up in work and don’t get to watch most of the racing. I manage to get the minimum price on the Dundalk Bar Stewards tip just before the off — and it loses by a neck. Back at Warwick, Dunskay falls at the first.

I spend 10 minutes updating my records — breakeven for the day across all tips with one left to run: Grand Vista at Kempton.

Grand Vista runs a stinker, and now I’m 1pt down for the day. On the positive side I manage to get the advised prices on DC’s Wincanton tip for tomorrow and the Bar Stewards one (Capall Rasa 4.30 Southwell at 5/4).

Another freezing dog walk ends the day, followed by tidying the house and more end-of-year review work — rock and roll!

Day P&L: -1pt (-£30)
Week P&L: -2.5pts (-£75)

Thurs 20th Nov

Office day today, so even less time to follow bets. Bar Stewards have nothing this morning, so it’s just the DC bet and last night’s Bar Stewards bet.

From the chat it doesn’t sound like Star of Affinity got the best ride, but Capall Rasa wins at Southwell — so it’s slightly better than breakeven.

Tom Collins is back with his US service tonight: two tips. With him you need to get on the prices instantly or they collapse before the US markets mature. I’m doing the nursery pick-up, so I miss the 6pm posting and the price is gone on both by the time I check.

The first tip drifts back to bigger than advised before the off — I back it — it runs well but finishes 3rd. The second, advised at 9/1 e/w, goes off 4/1 after being well backed, so I leave it. Thankfully it comes nowhere — 1pt saved.

I get on DC’s Friday bets at the advised prices and jump on Saturday’s selections too. Fingers crossed for a good weekend after a slow week.

Bar Stewards also put out a big-priced one for tomorrow (19:00 Southwell – Sir Alex). I miss the best prices but manage to get the minimum 13/2.

Note to self: watch the Take A Pull podcast tomorrow; they’re previewing Punchestown.

Ashes starts overnight — I won’t be watching, but I’ll be cheering on Carey for top bat in my sleep! I also get Australia under 304.5 runs at 2pts on the exchange per CricStatz.

Day P&L: -0.5pts (-£15)
Week P&L: -3pts (-£90)

Fri 21st Nov

Wake up to an all-too-familiar Ashes situation with England collapsing. But Australia get skittled too — good news. The runs bet looks golden, and Carey clings to top-scorer with a mighty 26! Stumps is called with Australia 9 down — frustrating to wait until tomorrow for returns. Would be a miracle to lose the runs bet, and lovely if Carey holds on too.

Onto racing: Bar Stewards post a 14/1 tip at Southwell (4.30 Chola Empire). I get about 11/1 on the exchange. Nothing else yet besides DC’s tips and Sir Alex.

I half-listen to the Take A Pull podcast while working. Their “nap of the TAP” is Catchabird (2.45 Punchestown). I have 0.5pts at 12/1.

Two 2nd places for DC is frustrating — neither ever really looked like winning. Chola Empire drifts like a barge; I top up with a fiver at 30/1. Runs nowhere.

Tom Collins has one US tip at 6pm. I sit waiting — as I’m about to back it at 2/1, Betfair cut it to 13/8 instantly. I wait for a drift. Sir Alex then runs agonisingly close in 2nd — typical.

I forget the Tom Collins horse entirely and check later — it has won at 15/8. Bugger! That would’ve added 2pts.

Another losing day, but hopeful cricket will start tomorrow well. 8pts outlay on DC tomorrow, and likely football bets too.

Day P&L: -4pts (-£120)
Week P&L: -7pts (-£210)

Sat 22nd Nov

Great start — both cricket bets win! That’s 8.5pts profit and the week is saved before racing even begins. I will happily see England smashed if it means my bets cash — sorry if that offends anyone!

Random thought: an in-running trader in a Telegram group says the best way to judge how a horse is travelling is to watch their hind legs. In 20 years of racing I’ve never really thought about this. Apparently you’re looking for a long, smooth, sweeping stride; and a horse lifting its head near the finish usually indicates fatigue.

I suddenly realise I have 10 minutes until the FPL deadline. I try to get Enzo in for Reijnders but pricing leaves me £0.1m short. Guaranteed he scores now. I captain Haaland and move on.

Late reading Bar Stewards again:

• Rocky’s Diamond 1.05 Punchestown advised 6/4 — get 2.56

• Kelijoe 1.58 Huntingdon advised 11/4 — get 4.4

• King’s Hand 3.30 Newcastle advised 3/1 (2pt) — after NRs I get 4.6

I also see Sound As A Bell 12.00 Punchestown at 4.4 and take 0.5pts.
DC’s market updates nudge me into:

• Nemean Lion (win market)

• Major Fortune

• Stellar Story

For record keeping, I only log £15+ bets, so fivers/ tenners aren’t tracked.

Lewis Jones’ football bets come in — I follow the bigger prices. Various half-points on scorers, assists, cards, and BTTS bets.

From the DC group I also take 0.5pts on Sea Poetry 12.38 Fontainebleau.

DC adds Nemean Lion top-4 market, so I get 1pt at 6/4. Also £10 on Iroko/Jukebox Man straight forecast.

Busy morning — need a lie down.

Later: overall it’s a 2pt loss across all tipsters. DC’s were the bright spot, and Tom Collins landed two US winners. Bar Stewards & football were unlucky, and Enzo scored as predicted.

Poker time: two $100 tournaments on GG. I cash both for a couple hundred but no big score yet. Getting closer though.

Day P&L: +6.5pts (+£195)
Week P&L: -0.5pts (-£15)

Sun 23rd Nov

Today revolves around Gaelic Warrior — 2pts at 3/1 advised yesterday. Really hope he runs well ahead of my King George ante-post multiples.

Nothing from Bar Stewards. Only football bet is in the North London Derby but I can’t get the minimum price. George posts a BTTS bet in Spain — 1pt at 19/20.

Out most of the day with my son so I miss the racing. I catch the end of the John Durkan from the soft-play area — we’re just about celebrating! Fingers crossed for Boxing Day. Feet Of A Dancer wins as the TAP nap, but I don’t have a penny on.

Bar Stewards have Snatch A Glance 1.05 Ludlow for tomorrow — I get the 10/3.
DC has two — I take 7/2 Kamsinas (within range), but Doctor Ken at 7/2 is out of range so I wait for morning.

Tom Collins has two US picks. I miss the price on one; get 2/1 on the other — but it gets collared late. Heavily backed though, so the value was gone.

Poker: I enter a GG “mystery bounty” — best format IMO. Make the money with a good stack but get crushed by 6-2 suited hitting a full house. Still +$150 and played well.

Day P&L: +5pts (+£150)
Week P&L: +4.5pts (+£135)

Mon 24th Nov

Last day of writing this. I must admit I’ve found it quite self-reflective — even if most of you are probably bored by now.

Snatch A Glance is into 2/1 — great value. Kamsinas into 5/2 — also good. Waiting on Doctor Ken proves wise as it drifts; I get 8/1. I also have a tenner on Viroflay per DC’s write-up.

First Confession looks too short under evens — we were on him last time, and although he shaped like a winner next time out over a longer trip, I wouldn’t take this price.

Snatch A Glance wins (5/4f). Nice start. Kamsinas is unlucky and just outbattled. Doctor Ken and Viroflay both run well without winning — but definitely value plays.

Day P&L: +1pt (+£30)
Week P&L: +5.5pts (+£165)

I’ll leave it there and hand the baton over. For those who made it this far, I hope you’ve enjoyed a window into my somewhat degenerate betting life! Nice to report a profitable week overall (plus poker winnings). Be lucky, guys!