DC Market Intelligence Report –Feb 25, 2026

## 1) Strong Money Recap (Yesterday)

Yesterday’s tape was defined by **violent compression**: 15 runners qualified as *strong steamers* (≥15% contraction from 10am to final), with several collapsing from double-digits into the front end of the market.

The headline move was **Exmoor (Newcastle AW)**, smashed from **12.00 → 2.75 (77.1%)**, and notably **SP 2.38**. That’s not a drift-and-win story; it was backed all day and kept shortening into the off.

Just behind it came **Pallas Lord (Newcastle AW)**, **13.00 → 3.00 (76.9%)** with an **SP 3.75**. This one is important: the early-to-final contraction was huge, but the SP sat *bigger than the final*. The market still landed it, but the price action shows the final move didn’t fully hold into the off.

Southwell produced two of the most aggressive compressions:
– **Kamekist**: **17.00 → 5.00 (70.6%)**, **SP 6.00**
– **Mehmas Engine**: **4.50 → 1.91 (57.6%)**, **SP 1.83**

Newcastle also supplied depth beyond the two winners:
– **Grant Wood**: **17.00 → 5.50 (67.6%)**, **SP 5.00**
– **Reenie’s Dream**: **21.00 → 7.00 (66.7%)**, **SP 7.50**
– **Asian Journey**: **13.00 → 6.00 (53.8%)**, **SP 6.50**
– **Jkr Cobbler**: **9.00 → 4.33 (51.9%)**, **SP 4.33**

On turf, Leicester/Catterick took meaningful action:
– **Nedzor (Leicester)**: **7.50 → 3.25 (56.7%)**, **SP 3.50**
– **Shadowfax Of Rohan (Catterick)**: **8.50 → 4.00 (52.9%)**, **SP 4.33**
– **Bid Up (Catterick)**: **8.50 → 4.00 (52.9%)**, **SP 4.33**
– **Gardener (Catterick)**: **15.00 → 7.50 (50.0%)**, **SP 7.00**
– **Paul Marvel (Leicester)**: **2.50 → 1.30 (48.0%)**, **SP 1.33**

And then there was the outlier: **Big Love (Catterick)**, **101.00 → 51.00 (49.5%)**, yet **SP 26.00**. That’s not “support”; that’s a chaotic profile where the late market completely rewrote the narrative.

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## 2) Landed vs Went Astray – keep it ruthless

**Strong steamers (≥15%) record:** **5 winners / 15 qualifiers**. The money was often *right*, but far from automatic.

### Landed (the market got paid)
– **Exmoor** (Newcastle AW): **12.00 → 2.75**, **won**
– **Pallas Lord** (Newcastle AW): **13.00 → 3.00**, **won**
– **Grant Wood** (Newcastle AW): **17.00 → 5.50**, **won**
– **Shadowfax Of Rohan** (Catterick): **8.50 → 4.00**, **won**
– **Paul Marvel** (Leicester): **2.50 → 1.30**, **won**

This is the clean story: when the steamers landed, they tended to land decisively—multiple big contractions converting into wins across Newcastle/Catterick/Leicester.

### Went astray (and some were expensive mistakes)
The losing list is where discipline is made or broken:

– **Mehmas Engine (Southwell AW)**: **4.50 → 1.91**, **pos 3**. Heavy support into a short price; still beat.
– **Kamekist (Southwell AW)**: **17.00 → 5.00**, **pos 3**. Monster move; no win.
– **Asian Journey (Newcastle AW)**: **13.00 → 6.00**, **pos 3**. Compressed, competitive, not good enough.
– **Gardener (Catterick)**: **15.00 → 7.50**, **pos 3**. Halved and still found at least two too strong.
– **Jkr Cobbler (Newcastle AW)**: **9.00 → 4.33**, **pos 4**. The market narrowed it; the track result didn’t follow.
– **Prince Quattro (Southwell AW)**: **13.00 → 6.00**, **pos 5**. The move said “in the mix”; finishing position agreed—just not in the right way.
– **Reenie’s Dream (Newcastle AW)**: **21.00 → 7.00**, **pos 9**. Not a near-miss; a complete miss.
– **Big Love (Catterick)**: **101.00 → 51.00**, **pos 6**. Even after contraction it was still a longshot profile, and it ran like one.

Bottom line: **contraction is not a substitute for selectivity**. Yesterday had multiple examples where the money pointed to competitiveness (placed efforts) without delivering the win, and at least one (Reenie’s Dream) where the steam told you nothing useful by the end.

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## 3) Trainer & Jockey Support – who the money followed repeatedly

### Trainers most repeatedly backed (from strong steamers)
– **Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith:** **3 backed / 0 won**
– **Antony Brittain:** **3 backed / 0 won**
– **Paul Midgley:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Patrick Neville:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Kevin Ryan:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Ivan Furtado:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Sam England:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Gary Hanmer:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Iain Jardine:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– Singles that converted: **Andrew Balding 1/1**, **Donald Whillans 1/1**, **J J O’Shea 1/1**

Key read: the market repeatedly leaned into **Parkinson & Sue Smith** and **Brittain** and got **nothing back** yesterday. Meanwhile, several stables with only two runners in the steamer set still returned a winner (Midgley/Neville/Ryan). Don’t confuse “frequently backed” with “profitable yesterday.”

### Jockeys most repeatedly backed (from strong steamers)
– **Paul Mulrennan:** **3 backed / 0 won**
– **Danny McMenamin:** **3 backed / 0 won**
– **Jason Hart:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **David Nolan:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Charlie Maggs:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Sean Bowen:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Kevin Stott:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Mohammed Tabti:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Alex Jary:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Jack Callan:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– Singles that converted: **P J McDonald 1/1**, **Mr Henry Crow 1/1**

Again, repetition didn’t equal returns: the two most-followed jockeys went **0/3** each within the strong-steamer cohort.

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## 4) What It Means – practical execution & discipline, no fluff

1) **Treat “strong steamer” as a filter, not a bet instruction.** Yesterday’s hit-rate on the ≥15% set was **5/15**. That’s useful signal, not permission to auto-fire.

2) **Be wary of short-priced steamers as “free wins.”** Mehmas Engine was crushed into **1.91 final / 1.83 SP** and still only managed **3rd**. When the price gets that tight, the market is already charging you for the information.

3) **Separate “competitive” from “winning.”** Several losers finished **3rd–5th** after big contractions (Kamekist, Asian Journey, Gardener, Prince Quattro). That profile is exactly how you bleed stakes if you chase steam without a plan for price and outcome.

4) **Use repeated support as a watchlist, not a bias.** Parkinson & Sue Smith and Brittain were followed three times each and went **0/3**. The market can be consistent and still be consistently wrong on the day.

**This is market intelligence, not a guarantee.** Steam identifies where money went and how price evolved; it does not promise performance, fitness, intent, or a clean trip.

**CTA:** Hit the members’ **Today’s Qualifiers** tool to see which runners are meeting the same strong-money thresholds right now—and decide your execution rules before the market forces your hand.

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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-02-25 06:57:59
– Yesterday: 2026-02-24
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 29
– Runners: 229
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 11
– Missed: 38
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0

**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk

## 🟢 Today’s Live SP Qualifiers

Live qualifiers update automatically inside the tools below:

📉 10am Market Plunge List
Horses heavily backed last time and historically profitable to oppose next run.

📊 Market Form Lay Angles
Big drifters and weak market profiles to oppose at SP.

These tools update automatically throughout the day as qualifiers appear.

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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-02-25 06:57:59
– Yesterday: 2026-02-24
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 29
– Runners: 229
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 11
– Missed: 38
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0

**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk