DC Market Intelligence Report –Feb 20, 2026

## 1) Strong Money Recap (Yesterday) – what got backed hard

We tracked 29 races / 229 runners, with the report constrained to **STRONG STEAMERS only** (≥15% contraction from 10am → final). Yesterday’s tape was dominated by **violent late collapses from big morning prices**, particularly at **Sedgefield** and **Thurles (IRE)**, with **Huntingdon** providing the cleaner read-through (two major contractions, both converting).

Top-end contractions (10am → final):

– **Fearless Dragon (Sedgefield)**: 67.0 → 23.0 (**-65.7%**) | SP 23.0
– **Port Rashid (Thurles)**: 81.0 → 29.0 (**-64.2%**) | SP 41.0
– **Goodoldbill (Sedgefield)**: 51.0 → 19.0 (**-62.7%**) | SP 15.0
– **Community Rebel (Sedgefield)**: 8.0 → 3.5 (**-56.3%**) | SP 3.5
– **Marcello Si (Newcastle AW)**: 17.0 → 8.0 (**-52.9%**) | SP 8.5
– **Campbell Black (Thurles)**: 12.0 → 6.0 (**-50.0%**) | SP 6.5
– **Burano Murano (Huntingdon)**: 26.0 → 13.0 (**-50.0%**) | SP 9.0

Second tier still meaningful:

– **Duke Otto (Thurles)**: 29.0 → 15.0 (-48.3%) | SP 17.0
– **West Cork Wildway (Thurles)**: 21.0 → 11.0 (-47.6%) | SP 8.0
– **Owl Of Athens (Huntingdon)**: 6.5 → 3.5 (-46.2%) | SP 2.88
– **Wyvern (Newcastle AW)**: 13.0 → 7.5 (-42.3%) | SP 7.0
– **Ratafia (Newcastle AW)**: 19.0 → 11.0 (-42.1%) | SP 13.0
– **Pebble Dash (Newcastle AW)**: 11.0 → 6.5 (-40.9%) | SP 6.5
– **Orlando Spirit (Thurles)**: 67.0 → 41.0 (-38.8%) | SP 29.0
– **Swiss Ace (Newcastle AW)**: 13.0 → 8.0 (-38.5%) | SP 7.5

Key market tell: a number of these weren’t just “supported” — they were **repriced**. But the results show (again) that **strength of steam ≠ certainty of outcome**. Execution matters.

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## 2) Landed vs Went Astray – keep it ruthless

### Landed (Strong steamers that won)
Four of the listed strong steamers converted, and they were the ones where the move held and the horse actually did the job:

– **Goodoldbill (Sedgefield)**: 51.0 → 19.0 (-62.7%) | **SP 15.0** | **Won**
– **Campbell Black (Thurles)**: 12.0 → 6.0 (-50.0%) | **SP 6.5** | **Won**
– **Burano Murano (Huntingdon)**: 26.0 → 13.0 (-50.0%) | **SP 9.0** | **Won**
– **Owl Of Athens (Huntingdon)**: 6.5 → 3.5 (-46.2%) | **SP 2.88** | **Won**

Practical read: this was not a day where only the “obvious” shorter ones delivered. **Goodoldbill** is the standout: huge contraction from a monster 10am number and still got it done.

### Went astray (Strong steamers that lost)
The list of market convictions that didn’t convert is long, and importantly, **some were smashed hardest of all**:

– **Fearless Dragon (Sedgefield)**: 67.0 → 23.0 (-65.7%) | SP 23.0 | **3rd**
– **Port Rashid (Thurles)**: 81.0 → 29.0 (-64.2%) | SP 41.0 | **7th**
– **Community Rebel (Sedgefield)**: 8.0 → 3.5 (-56.3%) | SP 3.5 | **3rd**
– **Marcello Si (Newcastle AW)**: 17.0 → 8.0 (-52.9%) | SP 8.5 | **4th**
– **Duke Otto (Thurles)**: 29.0 → 15.0 (-48.3%) | SP 17.0 | **11th**
– **West Cork Wildway (Thurles)**: 21.0 → 11.0 (-47.6%) | SP 8.0 | **8th**
– **Wyvern (Newcastle AW)**: 13.0 → 7.5 (-42.3%) | SP 7.0 | **8th**
– **Ratafia (Newcastle AW)**: 19.0 → 11.0 (-42.1%) | SP 13.0 | **9th**
– **Pebble Dash (Newcastle AW)**: 11.0 → 6.5 (-40.9%) | SP 6.5 | **4th**
– **Orlando Spirit (Thurles)**: 67.0 → 41.0 (-38.8%) | SP 29.0 | **2nd**

Ruthless takeaway: **Port Rashid** is the day’s clearest warning. Massive 10am→final compression, but drifted to an SP of 41.0 and finished 7th. That is exactly why we treat “the move” and “where it closes” as separate pieces of information.

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## 3) Trainer & Jockey Support – who the money followed repeatedly

### Trainers most supported (from strong steamers)
Where the market returned to the same yard more than once:

– **John Butler**: 2 backed / **1 won**
– **Timothy Townend**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Paul O’Flynn**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Gary Harrison**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Ruth Carr**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Michael Winters**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Henry De Bromhead**: 2 backed / 0 won

Single-hit, perfect conversion (yesterday only, from strong steamers):
– **Jane Walton**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **William Harvey**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Denis Quinn**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Evan Williams**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Conor Houlihan**: 1 backed / **1 won**

Interpretation: repeated support doesn’t automatically mean a “hot stable” day. Yesterday, most of the repeat-followed trainers **didn’t get paid** despite attracting more than one meaningful move.

### Jockeys most supported (from strong steamers)
Repeated market attention:

– **Conor Ring**: 2 backed / **1 won**
– **Miss J Townend**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Mr Andrew Burke-Ott**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Taryn Langley**: 2 backed / 0 won
– **Darragh O’Keeffe**: 2 backed / 0 won

Single-hit winners (again: yesterday only, from strong steamers):
– **Charlie Maggs**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Ms L A Byrne**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Callum Pritchard**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Connor Planas**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Mr B T Stone**: 1 backed / **1 won**
– **Mohammed Tabti**: 1 backed / **1 won**

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## 4) What It Means – practical execution & discipline, no fluff

1) **Steam strength is not the edge by itself.** Yesterday had extreme contractions that still lost (Fearless Dragon, Port Rashid, Community Rebel). Your execution needs rules that assume a meaningful percentage will fail.

2) **Separate “moved hard” from “closed well”.** Port Rashid is the example: strong 10am→final move, but the SP ended up longer than the final price listed (29.0 final vs 41.0 SP) and the run didn’t match the early signal. Treat late behaviour as its own filter, not an afterthought.

3) **Respect venue-by-venue noise.** Sedgefield and Thurles produced heavy market action with mixed conversion. Huntingdon, by contrast, delivered two major steamers (Burano Murano, Owl Of Athens) and both won. That’s not a forward-looking claim—just a reminder to review your own venue baselines rather than assuming all tracks price the same way.

4) **Keep staking mechanical.** A day like this punishes “confidence staking” on the biggest movers. The biggest contraction on the sheet didn’t win. If you’re scaling stakes, do it on pre-set criteria, not on how dramatic the graph looks.

**Disclaimer:** This is market intelligence, not a guarantee. Prices can contract for multiple reasons and even the strongest steams will lose a meaningful share of the time—use disciplined staking and consistent filters.

**CTA:** Head to the **Today’s Qualifiers** tool to see the live strong-money movers and apply your rules set before you bet.

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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-02-20 07:19:40
– Yesterday: 2026-02-19
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 29
– Runners: 229
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 7
– Missed: 46
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0

**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk

## 🟢 Today’s Live SP Qualifiers

Live qualifiers update automatically inside the tools below:

📉 10am Market Plunge List
Horses heavily backed last time and historically profitable to oppose next run.

📊 Market Form Lay Angles
Big drifters and weak market profiles to oppose at SP.

These tools update automatically throughout the day as qualifiers appear.

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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-02-20 07:19:40
– Yesterday: 2026-02-19
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 29
– Runners: 229
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 7
– Missed: 46
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0

**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk