DC Market Intelligence Report –Feb 18, 2026

## 1) Strong Money Recap (Yesterday) – what got backed hard

Yesterday’s tape produced **15 strong steamers** (our threshold: **≥15% contraction from 10am to final**) across **Wolverhampton (AW), Newbury, and Market Rasen**. The shape was aggressive: multiple runners halving (or better) in price, including two standout collapses that would normally read as “someone knows”.

Top of the board for pure contraction was **Captain Kinsella (Wolverhampton AW)**, hammered from **10.00 → 3.75 (62.5%)**. Next came **Age Of Baroque (Wolverhampton AW)** from **41.00 → 19.00 (53.7%)**—a huge move for a bigger-priced profile. At Market Rasen, **On Jack** was properly supported, **5.50 → 2.63 (52.2%)**, and at Wolverhampton **Water Of Leith** tightened hard **3.25 → 1.73 (46.8%)**, the sort of late-market gravity you don’t ignore.

Newbury contributed a dense cluster of firm, credible steam:
– **Springs A Girl** **9.00 → 5.00 (44.4%)**
– **Galashiels** **8.00 → 4.50 (43.8%)**
– **As The Fella Says** **5.00 → 2.88 (42.4%)**
– **Lully Du Houx** **34.00 → 21.00 (38.2%)**
– **Let’s Love** **12.00 → 7.50 (37.5%)**

Wolverhampton (AW) was the other engine room for money, with secondary but still meaningful contractions:
– **Naughty Niall** **8.00 → 4.33 (45.9%)**
– **Annandale** **7.50 → 4.50 (40.0%)**
– **Free Yourself** **6.00 → 4.00 (33.3%)**
– **Rosco Rogers** **5.00 → 3.50 (30.0%)**

Market Rasen added two more: **Watamu** **13.00 → 8.00 (38.5%)** and **Looking As You Are** **17.00 → 11.00 (35.3%)**.

Bottom line on the recap: the market wasn’t just “warm” on these—several were **structural moves** (40–60% contraction) that typically require sustained, confident money.

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## 2) Landed vs Went Astray – keep it ruthless

**Yesterday’s strong-steamer hit rate:** **2 winners from 15**. That’s the hard truth of it.

### Landed (strong steamers that won)
Only two of the ≥15% qualifiers actually got the job done:
– **On Jack (Market Rasen)** **5.50 → 2.63 (52.2%)** | **SP 2.75** | **Won**
– **As The Fella Says (Newbury)** **5.00 → 2.88 (42.4%)** | **SP 2.88** | **Won**

Those are proper “tape + execution” results: heavy contraction and delivery.

### Went astray (strong steamers that lost)
The list is long, and it includes the biggest movers—exactly where discipline is tested.
– **Captain Kinsella** **10.00 → 3.75 (62.5%)** | pos **7**
– **Age Of Baroque** **41.00 → 19.00 (53.7%)** | pos **8**
– **Water Of Leith** **3.25 → 1.73 (46.8%)** | pos **2**
– **Naughty Niall** **8.00 → 4.33 (45.9%)** | pos **4**
– **Springs A Girl** **9.00 → 5.00 (44.4%)** | pos **2**
– **Galashiels** **8.00 → 4.50 (43.8%)** | pos **2**
– **Annandale** **7.50 → 4.50 (40.0%)** | pos **2**
– **Watamu** **13.00 → 8.00 (38.5%)** | pos **3**
– **Lully Du Houx** **34.00 → 21.00 (38.2%)** | pos **9**
– **Let’s Love** **12.00 → 7.50 (37.5%)** | pos **5**

Ruthless read: we had a day where the market repeatedly **identified competitive runners** (a stack of 2nds and a 3rd), but **conversion was poor** at the strongest-steamer threshold. The “false steamer” table is effectively the same story: the biggest contractions were not protected from failure.

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## 3) Trainer & Jockey Support – who the money followed repeatedly

The money concentrated around a handful of yards and riders—important because repeated support is often more actionable than isolated steam.

### Trainers most supported (from strong steamers)
– **Nicky Henderson:** **3 backed / 1 won** (highest volume)
– **Ben Pauling:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Jim Goldie:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Martin Keighley:** **2 backed / 0 won**
Single qualifiers that converted:
– **Tom Weston:** **1 / 1**
– **Ivan Furtado:** **1 / 1**
– **James Owen:** **1 / 1**
– **Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith:** **1 / 1**
Single qualifiers that didn’t:
– **John Gallagher:** **1 / 0**
– **Jessica Macey:** **1 / 0**
– **Ian Williams:** **1 / 0**
– **Emma Lavelle:** **1 / 0**

Takeaway: Henderson attracted the most repeated attention; Pauling matched him on efficiency (smaller sample). Goldie and Keighley drew multiple bets with no return yesterday.

### Jockeys most supported (from strong steamers)
– **Callum Hutchinson:** **3 backed / 0 won** (notably cold on results)
– **James Bowen:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Ashley Lewis:** **2 backed / 1 won**
– **Lauren Young:** **2 backed / 0 won**
– **Freddie Keighley:** **2 backed / 0 won**
Singles that won:
– **Robert Dunne:** **1 / 1**
– **Stevie Donohoe:** **1 / 1**
– **Danny McMenamin:** **1 / 1**
– **Ben Jones:** **1 / 1**
Singles that lost:
– **Oisin McSweeney:** **1 / 0**
– **Taryn Langley:** **1 / 0**
– **Ryan Kavanagh:** **1 / 0**

Takeaway: Hutchinson was the most-followed rider on the qualifiers list and went **0/3**—useful context when the market repeatedly leans one way but the outcomes don’t follow.

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## 4) What It Means – practical execution & discipline, no fluff

1) **A strong steamer is not a “must win”; it’s a signal.** Yesterday is the clean proof. We had extreme contractions (62.5%, 53.7%, 46.8%) that still missed. Treat these as intelligence about intent/expectation—not as certainty about outcome.

2) **Respect the “placed but beaten” profile.** Several qualifiers ran 2nd/3rd (Water Of Leith, Springs A Girl, Galashiels, Annandale, Watamu). The market was often directionally right about competitiveness even when it wasn’t right about the win.

3) **Don’t overreact to single-day trainer/jockey conversion.** Yes, some trainers/jockeys were 1/1 yesterday, and some higher-volume names blanked. Use the support list as a **where-the-money-went map**, not as a standalone tipping method.

4) **Execution discipline:** the edge here comes from consistency—tracking **true 10am→final contraction**, sticking to the defined threshold, and reviewing days like this without rewriting rules midstream. The process flags intent; your job is to apply staking and selection discipline that can survive days when the market is loud and still wrong.

**Disclaimer:** This is market intelligence, not a guarantee. Prices move for many reasons, and even the strongest signals will lose plenty of the time.

**CTA:** Head to **today’s Qualifiers tool** and filter for **≥15% strong steamers** to see where the money is landing this morning.

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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-02-18 11:37:21
– Yesterday: 2026-02-17
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 22
– Runners: 174
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 6
– Missed: 24
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0

**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk

## 🟢 Today’s Live SP Qualifiers

Live qualifiers update automatically inside the tools below:

📉 10am Market Plunge List
Horses heavily backed last time and historically profitable to oppose next run.

📊 Market Form Lay Angles
Big drifters and weak market profiles to oppose at SP.

These tools update automatically throughout the day as qualifiers appear.

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### Data Appendix (auto)
– Report generated: 2026-02-18 11:37:21
– Yesterday: 2026-02-17
– Strong steamer threshold: 15%
– Races: 22
– Runners: 174
– Strong steamers listed: 20
– Landed: 6
– Missed: 24
– False steamers (listed): 10
– Trainers in support table: 12
– Jockeys in support table: 12
– Qualifiers provided today: 0

**Today CTA:** https://dc-network.co.uk