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The Market Form Edge.
Dan Skelton
A drift hasn’t meant fewer winners.
Almost identical strike rates.
Let others worry about meaningless market drifters. See the record behind the drift before reacting.
Open → 10am · drifts of 5+ probability points.
Aidan O’Brien
When the early money deserves a closer look.
runners backed this strongly by 10am
JUST 3.7% OF THE SAMPLEFurther support to 11/8 or shorter
in that qualifying group
Support threshold: 10+ probability points. Each percentage relates to its stated group.
Henry de Bromhead
Support changes the historical picture.
More than double his overall strike rate.
Main comparison: opening → SP. Morning group: Open → 10am.
All that context.
Inside our ratings.
Historical examples. Support and drift are measured in probability points. Samples and checkpoints differ; these strike rates are historical group results.
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Our analysis comes from recorded market prices, purpose-built calculations and historical results. More than simple signals, Market Form® shows how unusual a move is and what comparable market behaviour has meant for the horse and trainer previously.
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Understand what today’s market moves mean, using the history behind them.
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All the market moves. Top-rated runners. What matters right now.
What Moved Overnight Into 10am
Market Movers
Find the moves that matter because of what happened historically—not simply because a price shortened or weakened.
Most Meaningful Overnight Movement
Ranked by what comparable market behaviour has historically meant—not by the size of today’s price change.
The Egyptian Ginge
3.00 Aintree6/1 → 4/1 · Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
1 of this horse’s 7 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 13/59 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 3/3 times and won 2/3. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Worcester on 25th September 2026 at 5/2.
What to watch +
Watch for 7/2 or shorter: the 8-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 5/24 runners won (20.8%) in that checkpoint group.
Build A Bridge
12.45 Gowran Park5/2 → 11/8 · Rory Anthony Devine
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 5 previous runs.
With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 1/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Punchestown (IRE) on 13th October 2026 at 11/4.
Up The Anti
4.25 Southwell (AW)9/2 → 12/1 · Tony Carroll
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 9 previous runs. The trainer is 21/244 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
This horse has recorded 2 previous drifts comparable to today’s move and failed to place in all 2. The best finishing position from those runs was 4th at Kempton (AW) on 14th January 2026 at 7/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 20/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 4/26 runners won (15.4%) in that checkpoint group.
Drish Samphire
4.25 Southwell (AW)4/1 → 9/1 · Lawrence Mullaney
1 of this horse’s 6 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s. The trainer is 0/8 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
This horse has recorded 1 previous drift comparable to today’s move and failed to place. The best finishing position from those runs was 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 31st July 2026 at 50/1.
Crown The Future
3.13 Southwell (AW)4/1 → 15/2 · Tony Carroll
1 of this horse’s 9 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s. The trainer is 21/244 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
With drift comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 1/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Wolverhampton (AW) on 28th September 2026 at 5/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 12/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 4/26 runners won (15.4%) in that checkpoint group.
Chapel Down
3.50 Southwell (AW)3/1 → 5/1 · Adam Kirby
The trainer is 2/35 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
With drift comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 0/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 2nd at Brighton on 15th October 2026 at 20/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 5/1 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 2/12 runners won (16.7%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample.
Sahm Naif
6.00 Southwell (AW)11/1 → 11/2 · James Horton
1 of this horse’s 9 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 7/26 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/2 times and won 1/2. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Beverley on 23rd June 2026 at 9/4.
What to watch +
Watch for 15/4 or shorter: the 12-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 2/5 runners won (40%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample.
Bladey Lady
1.35 Doncaster4/1 → 7/1 · Tim Easterby
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 8 previous runs. The trainer is 8/164 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.
With drift comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 0/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 3rd at Beverley on 12th May 2026 at 11/1.
What to watch +
Watch for 15/2 or bigger: the 8-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 5/37 runners won (13.5%) in that checkpoint group.
Backed 10AM
Strongest bookmaker support at the checkpoint.
| # | Horse | Race | Trainer | Opening price | 10AM price | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Baila ConmigoJ: Eoghan Finegan(5) | 1.50 Gowran Park2m20y | Ciaran Murphy | 7/21st show | 7/424 books | +14.71pp+40.3% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 16 previous runs. The trainer is 1/7 with runners shortening 10 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 16 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 3 of 263 historical runners (1.1%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 3 runners, 0 won (0%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Leopardstown (IRE) on 15th April 2026, when it finished 2nd at an SP of 9/2. Ciaran Murphy: 1/7 won (14.3%) after support of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 8.6% (23/269). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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| #2 | King HorseJ: Danny McMenamin | 12.55 KelsoClass 5 · 2m4f189y | Nicky Richards | 2/11st show | 6/525 books | +12.87pp+28.1% price |
The trainer is 9/25 with runners shortening 10 percentage points or more from opening to SP.Unusual support for this trainer — only 8 of 172 historical runners (4.7%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 8 runners, 5 won (62.5%). No comparable historical support is recorded for this horse. Nicky Richards: 9/25 won (36%) after support of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 22.4% (41/183). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 1/1 or shorter: the 15-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 3/3 runners won (100%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. |
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| #3 | Build A BridgeJ: Danny Mullins | 12.45 Gowran Park2m4f | Rory Anthony Devine | 5/21st show | 11/824 books | +12.18pp+29.3% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 5 previous runs.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 5 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 5 of 58 historical runners (8.6%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 5 runners, 3 won (60%). With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 1/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Punchestown (IRE) on 13th October 2026 at 11/4. Rory Anthony Devine: 1/3 won (33.3%) after support of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 10.3% (6/58). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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| #4 | A Snow White ParkJ: Danny Mullins | 3.30 Gowran Park2m3f180y | Ms Margaret Mullins | EVS1st show | 4/724 books | +12.03pp+19.1% price |
1 of this horse’s 9 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. The trainer is 3/5 with runners shortening 10 percentage points or more from opening to SP.One of this horse’s 9 previous recorded moves showed stronger support than today’s. Unusual support for this trainer — only 4 of 55 historical runners (7.3%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 4 runners, 2 won (50%). With support comparable to today’s move, the horse placed 1/1 times and won 1/1. The best finishing position from those runs was 1st at Clonmel (IRE) on 5th November 2026 at 8/11. Ms Margaret Mullins: 3/5 won (60%) after support of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 17.2% (10/58). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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| #5 | BlackjackJ: Rowan Scott | 4.25 Southwell (AW)Class 6 · 0m6f17y | Alan Brown | 5/11st show | 5/225 books | +11.55pp+40.6% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 11 previous runs.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 11 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 9 of 148 historical runners (6.1%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 9 runners, 1 won (11.1%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Southwell (AW) on 23rd April 2026, when it finished 5th at an SP of 11/1. Alan Brown: 1/3 won (33.3%) after support of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 3.3% (5/150). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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| #6 | Leave In SecretJ: Harry Sexton(7) | 1.20 Gowran Park2m | Thomas Gibney | 9/21st show | 5/224 books | +10.00pp+35.5% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 6 previous runs. The trainer is 2/8 with runners shortening 10 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 6 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 3 of 102 historical runners (2.9%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 3 runners, 0 won (0%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Galway (IRE) on 25th October 2026, when it finished 6th at an SP of 10/1. Thomas Gibney: 2/8 won (25%) after support of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 5.7% (6/105). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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| #7 | Kohana GirlJ: Marco Ghiani | 5.00 Southwell (AW)Class 4 · 0m4f215y | J. R. Jenkins | 14/11st show | 5/125 books | +9.38pp+56.8% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 3 previous runs.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 3 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 3 of 50 historical runners (6%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 3 runners, 1 won (33.3%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Southwell (AW) on 6th October 2026, when it finished 3rd at an SP of 16/1. J. R. Jenkins: 1/3 won (33.3%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 3.9% (2/51). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this support continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further shortening would strengthen the move; a reversal would weaken it. |
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| #8 | Gower SpiritJ: Kevin Brogan | 3.05 UttoxeterClass 5 · 2m3f207y | Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | 17/21st show | 4/125 books | +9.05pp+46.6% price |
Strongest support recorded across this horse’s 6 previous runs. The trainer is 6/23 with runners shortening 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest support recorded for this horse across its 6 previous runs. Unusual support for this trainer — only 9 of 140 historical runners (6.4%) had support at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 9 runners, 1 won (11.1%). This horse has never previously recorded a support move comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous support move was recorded at Warwick on 26th March 2026, when it finished 2nd at an SP of 9/1. Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill: 6/23 won (26.1%) after support of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 18.3% (26/142). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 10/3 or shorter: the 12-point support threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 1/4 runners won (25%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. |
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Drifted 10AM
Largest bookmaker weakness at the checkpoint.
| # | Horse | Race | Trainer | Opening price | 10AM price | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Break My SoulJ: Keith Donoghue | 1.20 Gowran Park2m | Ian Patrick Donoghue | 5/61st show | 15/824 books | -19.07pp-55.1% price |
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 4 previous runs.This is the strongest weakness recorded for this horse across its 4 previous runs. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 4 of 230 historical runners (1.7%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 4 runners, 1 won (25%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Killarney (IRE) on 9th May 2026, when it finished 2nd at an SP of 11/4. Ian Patrick Donoghue: 0/1 won (0%) after drift of at least 15 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 6.8% (17/249). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this weakness continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further drifting would strengthen the warning; renewed support would weaken it. |
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| #2 | Butterfly BeachJ: Sean Dylan Bowen | 5.00 Southwell (AW)Class 4 · 0m4f215y | Ollie Sangster | 9/41st show | 11/225 books | -15.98pp-107.4% price |
The price is drifting.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 8 of 393 historical runners (2%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 8 runners, 1 won (12.5%). This horse has never previously recorded a drift comparable to today’s. Its strongest previous drift was recorded at Yarmouth on 13th May 2026, when it finished 4th at an SP of 9/4. Ollie Sangster: 2/17 won (11.8%) after drift of at least 15 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 13.9% (56/403). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this weakness continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further drifting would strengthen the warning; renewed support would weaken it. |
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| #3 | Huntin BootsJ: Sam Ewing | 1.50 Gowran Park2m20y | Gordon Elliott | 13/81st show | 10/324 books | -15.00pp-65.1% price |
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 3 previous runs.This is the strongest weakness recorded for this horse across its 3 previous runs. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 11 of 1137 historical runners (1%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 11 runners, 3 won (27.3%). On the one previous occasion this horse drifted, it placed but did not win. Gordon Elliott: 5/42 won (11.9%) after drift of at least 15 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 13.1% (157/1201). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this weakness continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further drifting would strengthen the warning; renewed support would weaken it. |
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| #4 | Clipsham NobleJ: Rob Hornby | 6.00 Southwell (AW)Class 6 · 1m4f0y | Charlie Clover | 2/11st show | 7/225 books | -11.25pp-51.7% price |
1 of this horse’s 12 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s. The trainer is 0/7 with runners drifting 10 percentage points or more from opening to SP.One of this horse’s 12 previous recorded moves showed greater weakness than today’s. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 5 of 117 historical runners (4.3%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 5 runners, 1 won (20%). This horse has recorded 1 previous drift comparable to today’s move and failed to place. The best finishing position from those runs was 4th at Leicester on 25th June 2026 at 5/1. Charlie Clover: 0/7 won (0%) after drift of at least 10 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 23.5% (28/119). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 4/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 0/3 runners won (0%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. |
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| #5 | Up The AntiJ: William Carson | 4.25 Southwell (AW)Class 6 · 0m6f17y | Tony Carroll | 9/21st show | 12/125 books | -9.64pp-121.1% price |
Strongest drift recorded across this horse’s 9 previous runs. The trainer is 21/244 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.This is the strongest weakness recorded for this horse across its 9 previous runs. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 59 of 995 historical runners (5.9%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 59 runners, 7 won (11.9%). This horse has recorded 2 previous drifts comparable to today’s move and failed to place in all 2. The best finishing position from those runs was 4th at Kempton (AW) on 14th January 2026 at 7/1. Tony Carroll: 21/244 won (8.6%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 12% (124/1034). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 20/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 4/26 runners won (15.4%) in that checkpoint group. |
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| #6 | Drish SamphireJ: Cian Horgan(5) | 4.25 Southwell (AW)Class 6 · 0m6f17y | Lawrence Mullaney | 4/11st show | 9/125 books | -9.42pp-95.4% price |
1 of this horse’s 6 previous recorded moves showed stronger drift than today’s. The trainer is 0/8 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.One of this horse’s 6 previous recorded moves showed greater weakness than today’s. Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 3 of 87 historical runners (3.4%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 3 runners, 0 won (0%). This horse has recorded 1 previous drift comparable to today’s move and failed to place. The best finishing position from those runs was 6th at Newcastle (AW) on 31st July 2026 at 50/1. Lawrence Mullaney: 0/8 won (0%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 4.5% (4/88). Small historical sample. These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch whether this weakness continues, holds or reverses between the 10AM checkpoint and SP. Further drifting would strengthen the warning; renewed support would weaken it. |
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| #7 | Imperial CourtJ: Sean Dylan Bowen | 2.40 Southwell (AW)Class 3 · 1m0f14y | Roger Varian | 5/11st show | 12/125 books | -8.91pp-119.0% price |
The trainer is 10/89 with runners drifting 5 percentage points or more from opening to SP.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 31 of 375 historical runners (8.3%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 31 runners, 6 won (19.4%). No comparable historical drift is recorded for this horse. Roger Varian: 10/89 won (11.2%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 21% (81/386). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 25/1 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 1/11 runners won (9.1%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. |
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| #8 | Highland RangerJ: Robert Havlin | 2.40 Southwell (AW)Class 3 · 1m0f14y | John & Thady Gosden | 9/41st show | 10/325 books | -8.16pp-34.5% price |
The price is drifting.Unusual weakness for this trainer — only 40 of 438 historical runners (9.1%) had weakness at or above this comparison level (Open→10AM). Of those 40 runners, 14 won (35%). No comparable historical drift is recorded for this horse. John & Thady Gosden: 25/100 won (25%) after drift of at least 5 percentage points from opening to SP. Overall win rate: 23.6% (106/449). These are completed opening-to-SP moves; today’s move is still developing. Watch for 9/2 or bigger: the 12-point drift threshold (Open→10AM). Historically, 6/12 runners won (50%) in that checkpoint group. Small historical sample. |
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Frozen and live bookmaker-market evidence, not a tip. Historical outcomes do not guarantee today’s result. Exchange prices are excluded.
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